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Two teams effectively split the season series and finished tied in points. Sounds like a coin toss, doesn't it? Only by digging deeper can we find out which team clearly has the edge.
Pittsburgh Offense vs. Philadelphia Defense
Pittsburgh Penguins Offense: 28.4 GVT
Philadelphia Flyers Defense: -20.3 GVT
Philadelphia Flyers Goaltending: 12.5 GVT
Total: Pittsburgh +36.2 GVT
Pittsburgh has a very potent offense at Even Strength, second only to the Detroit Red Wings this season. With the additions and returns of Sergei Gonchar, Bill Guerin and Chris Kunitz their starting line-up boasts an average 1.14 GVT Offense per game (see detailed player breakdowns below). Despite having enough solid offensive contributors to make three full lines, about 40% of their offense comes from their two stars: Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby. In Gonchar they have one of the league's best offensive defensemen, who is joined by two marginally effective contributors: the one-way offensive defenseman Kris Letang and the solid two-way defender Alex Goligoski.
Philadelphia's goaltender Martin Biron is their most valuable player, and contributes over 40% of the team's defense, about 0.7 GVT per game. That fact is as much praise for the solid, but underrated netminder as it is an indictment of the worst playoff team defensively. Their best defensive players are actually their star scorers: Jeff Carter, Mike Richards and Simon Gagne. Claude Giroux and Scott Hartnell are also sound two-way forwards. Their top defensive defenseman is Kimmo Timonen, and in Antero Niitymaki they are blessed with a capable back-up goaltender.
Philadelphia Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense
Philadelphia Flyers Offense: 12.4 GVT
Pittsburgh Penguins Defense: -0.7 GVT
Pittsburgh Penguins Goaltending: 1.6 GVT
Total: Philadelphia +11.5 GVT
Philadelphia is a Jekyll and Hyde team offensively at Even Strength. Half of their current line-up combined for a solid 1.07 GVT per game offensively this season, and while they rest, the other half 'Hydes' and tries not to do any damage. Though slightly less potent, the Flyers are like the Penguins in that they have a single solid puck-moving defenseman in Timonen, then two others who can contribute only marginally in Matt Carle and Braydon Coburn.
Pittsburgh's defense and goaltending combined for a solid 0.92 GVT defensively per game. Marc-Andre Fleury would barely qualify as a capable goaltender this season. However, Penguins fans better hope he doesn't get hurt, because his back-up Mathieu Garon did not have a strong season at all. In limited action, Gonchar was surprisingly good defensively, bested only by Phillipe Boucher. If you look at the whole season, Rob Scuderi was their top defensive blueliner. Like the Flyers, the Penguins have several good two-way forwards, including Malkin, Chris Kunitz and Ruslan Fedotenko.
Legend:
RPM: Relative Plus/Minus
ValO: Offensive GVT
ValD: Defensive GVT
ValG: Goaltending GVT
TOT: Offensive and Defensive GVT combined (Shootout GVT not included)
Pittsburgh Penguins
Player P GP G A PTS +/- RPM ValO ValD TOT
Evgeni Malkin F 82 35 78 113 +17 +18.1 18.9 4.5 23.4
Sidney Crosby F 77 33 70 103 +3 +4.4 16.7 2.0 18.7
Ruslan Fedotenko F 65 16 23 39 +18 +14.4 6.0 3.3 9.3
Chris Kunitz F 82 23 30 53 +12 +12.6 5.9 3.4 9.3
Tyler Kennedy F 67 15 20 35 +15 +11.0 4.8 2.8 7.6
Jordan Staal F 82 22 27 49 +5 -1.1 5.2 2.4 7.6
Rob Scuderi D 81 1 15 16 +23 +13.3 0.0 6.4 6.4
Petr Sykora F 76 25 21 46 +3 +5.1 4.4 1.5 5.9
Sergei Gonchar D 25 6 13 19 +6 +7.2 2.8 2.6 5.4
Philippe Boucher D 25 3 3 6 +10 +9.1 0.1 3.2 3.3
Kris Letang D 74 10 23 33 -7 -11.2 3.7 -0.5 3.2
Matt Cooke F 76 13 18 31 +0 -6.4 2.1 0.7 2.8
Pascal Dupuis F 71 12 16 28 +1 -6.0 1.7 1.0 2.7
Miroslav Satan F 65 17 19 36 +3 +2.7 3.8 1.1 4.9
Bill Guerin F 78 21 27 48 -12 +1.6 3.6 1.0 4.6
Alex Goligoski D 45 6 14 20 +5 +5.2 2.3 2.3 4.6
Hal Gill D 62 2 8 10 +11 +4.0 -0.3 3.2 2.9
Brooks Orpik D 79 2 17 19 +10 -0.5 -0.2 2.7 2.5
Mark Eaton D 68 4 5 9 +3 -3.7 -0.4 1.4 1.0
Maxime Talbot F 75 12 10 22 -9 -15.6 -0.1 -0.6 -0.7
Craig Adams F 45 2 5 7 -3 -5.0 -0.7 -0.2 -0.9
Eric Godard F 71 2 2 4 -3 -4.0 -2.1 -0.2 -2.3
Goalie GP GAA PCT% ValG ValD TOT
Marc-Andre Fleury 60.7 2.67 0.912 11.6 -0.5 11.1
Mathieu Garon 17.0 3.12 0.894 -4.1 0.1 -4.0
Philadelphia Flyers
Player P GP G A PTS +/- RPM ValO ValD TOT
Jeff Carter F 82 46 38 84 +23 +13.3 17.2 4.6 21.8
Mike Richards F 79 30 50 80 +22 +12.0 14.4 4.5 18.9
Simon Gagne F 79 34 40 74 +21 +14.9 14.5 4.2 18.7
Scott Hartnell F 82 30 30 60 +14 +7.6 8.6 2.9 11.5
Kimmo Timonen D 77 3 40 43 +19 +6.9 4.6 5.0 9.6
Mike Knuble F 82 27 20 47 +5 -1.8 5.9 1.5 7.4
Joffrey Lupul F 79 25 25 50 +1 -1.9 6.7 0.5 7.2
Claude Giroux F 42 9 18 27 +10 +8.1 4.2 1.9 6.1
Daniel Briere F 29 11 14 25 -1 -2.2 4.3 0.0 4.3
Braydon Coburn D 80 7 21 28 +7 -4.4 1.8 1.5 3.3
Matt Carle D 76 5 21 26 +3 +0.3 2.3 1.1 3.4
Ossi Vaananen D 46 1 9 10 +7 +1.1 0.3 1.4 1.7
Randy Jones D 47 4 4 8 +8 +3.2 -0.3 1.8 1.5
Andrew Alberts D 79 1 12 13 +6 +0.2 -0.6 1.2 0.6
Arron Asham F 78 8 12 20 +0 -1.4 0.0 0.1 0.1
Ryan Parent D 31 0 4 4 +3 -0.7 -1.0 0.5 0.5
Josh Gratton F 19 1 2 3 -2 -2.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.8
Lasse Kukkonen D 22 0 2 2 -2 -3.2 -0.4 -0.6 -1.0
Daniel Carcillo F 74 3 11 14 -15 -12.0 -3.2 -1.1 -4.3
Luca Sbisa D 39 0 7 7 -6 -7.0 -0.7 -1.4 -2.1
Darroll Powe F 60 6 5 11 -8 -11.4 -1.2 -1.2 -2.4
Andreas Nodl F 38 1 3 4 -15 -15.9 -2.1 -2.5 -4.6
Goalie GP GAA PCT% ValG ValD TOT
Martin Biron 52.9 2.76 0.915 15.9 -1.6 14.3
Antero Niitymaki 30.1 2.76 0.912 6.8 -0.6 6.2
Pittsburgh Power Play vs. Philadelphia Penalty Kill
Pittsburgh Power Play Offense: -6.2 GVT
Pittsburgh Power Play Defense: -4.7 GVT
Pittsburgh Power Plays Created (Penalties Drawn): 3.2 GVT
Pittsburgh Power Play Total: -7.7 GVT
Philadelphia Penalty Kill Offense: 7.0 GVT
Philadelphia Penalty Kill Defense: 7.5 GVT
Philadelphia Penalties Taken: -8.7 GVT
Philadelphia Penalty Kill Total: 5.8 GVT
The Flyers take a lot of penalties, more than any other playoff team. It's not as bad as it sounds because Pittsburgh's power play is surprisingly soft, and Philadelphia's penalty kill is particularly effective. Don't be surprised if the Flyers bag a few short-handed goals.
Philadelphia Power Play vs. Pittsburgh Penalty Kill
Philadelphia Power Play Offense: 11.1 GVT
Philadelphia Power Play Defense: 6.3 GVT
Pittsburgh Power Plays Created (Penalties Drawn): -4.1 GVT
Pittsburgh Power Play Total: 13.3 GVT
Pittsburgh Penalty Kill Offense: -1.0 GVT
Philadelphia Penalty Kill Defense: 5.8 GVT
Philadelphia Penalties Taken:-1.0 GVT
Philadelphia Penalty Kill Total: 3.8 GVT
Pittsburgh should take far fewer penalties, but expect the Flyers to take more advantage of them. There's very little doubt that the Flyers have all the advantages on special teams.
Season Series
The Flyers had a very slight edge over the Penguins in their 6 contests this season, outscoring the Penguins 21-19. They had 2 wins apiece, with 2 games decided by shoot-out and/or 4-on-4 overtime, neither of which apply in the playoffs.
Injuries and Intangibles
These two teams met in the Eastern Conference finals last season, and Pittsburgh secured the win. The Pittsburgh Penguins enter the playoffs not only as the league's hottest team, but also the healthiest. The Philadelphia Flyers are probably more concerned with the health of Daniel Briere, who was injured off-and-on all season, then with the status of depth players like Randy Jones, Ryan Parent, Riley Cote or Darien Hatcher.
Prediction
Using a combination of two methods based on both winning percentage and goal-based rating, Puck Prospectus gave both teams an even chance of winning this series. By going into more detail and breaking down the numbers, we can see that while Philadelphia enjoys better goaltending and special teams, that those are their only advantages. Will it be enough? Probably not. They are too weak defensively to stop the 2nd most potent offense and the hottest playoff team in the league.
Prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins in 6 games.
Robert Vollman is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Robert by clicking here or click here to see Robert's other articles.
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