Hockey Prospectus is taking a look at the NHL division by division and suggesting ways each team should tackle the forthcoming trade deadline. On Thursday, we continue with the Central Division.
Feb. 28 marks the NHL's trade deadline and every team in the league -- both playoff-bound and those likely for the draft lottery -- has needs to address. To prepare for the final flurry of transactions, we're going team by team to see which players can help fill some holes on contenders or provide some foundational stability for teams building for next season and beyond.
One statistic you'll come across in the analysis below is GVT, the main player valuation metric used by Hockey Prospectus. For a detailed explanation of GVT, click here.
Detroit Red Wings
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Thanks to Timo Seppa for last minute revisions for Detroit, Columbus and St. Louis. Someone else needed Conklin at the last minute (Detroit), Columbus wasn't to everyone's taste, and the St. Louis advice actually happened, but unfortunately before we could publish it.
Here are the originals.
The Problem: Goaltending
When Joey MacDonald is leading your team in save percentage, you know you have a problem. According to GVT, Detroit is ranked 20th in nets, almost dead last among playoff-bound teams, a weakness that is further aggravated by being merely average defensively. Chris Osgood is 38, out with a sports hernia and really not all that good even if he did return at 100%, leaving their fortunes in the hands of struggling sophomore Jimmy Howard.
The Fix: Bring back Ty Conklin from the St. Louis Blues.
Unfortunately the Detroit Red Wings don’t have the cap space for any major moves, and even have over 44 million already committed for next year. Any acquisition has to be an inexpensive one, without long-term carrying costs, which is why they tried to bring in Evgeni Nabokov with a cheap one-year deal.
That’s why veteran 34-year-old Alaskan Ty Conklin could be their best option. Don’t be fooled by his awful season in St. Louis, going into this season the former Red Wing’s post-lockout even-strength save percentage was identical to Nabokov’s. He’s a UFA that carries only a $1.3 million cap hit, and could be easily acquired for a middle prospect or draft choice.
Columbus Blue Jackets
The Problem: Puck-moving defenseman
Last year Anton Stralman scored 34 points, which is the most by a Blue Jacket defenseman since the lock-out. The absence of quality blueliners, especially those who can produce offensively, has been a problem so serious that they actually signed Mike Commodore to a five-year deal worth $3.75 million per season back in 2008-09.
The Fix: Wait until the off-season
Despite their recent success, the Columbus Blue Jackets are still a longshot to make the play-offs, qualifying barely a hundred times in a thousand simulations over at Hockey-Reference.com. Even though they stand to miss the play-offs for the tenth time in their eleven seasons, they shouldn’t trade away their future to rent an overpriced veteran, nor panic with a fire sale.
Given that so many teams have been willing to deal away good draft choices for depth talent, it’s a great time to move any UFAs that they do not intend to re-sign long-term, like possibly one or more of Chris Clark, Andrew Murray, Mathieu Garon, Ethan Moreau, and Jan Hejda. Columbus fans should be glad to have a conservative GM like Scott Howson, who will only move someone else – like young talent like Jakub Voracek or Steve Mason – if the offer is irresistibly advantageous to the club.
St. Louis Blues
The Problem: Veteran top-six forward
Quick, name a Blue over 30. It’s not easy to do given that there are only three. The St. Louis Blues are a young team poised to break out, and need some veteran leadership to help guide their prospects, and provide some much-needed secondary scoring.
The Fix: Move Eric Brewer for a Pick or a Prospect.
What a minute, right before we suggested they move their captain, didn’t we say they needed veteran leadership? Yes, but unfortunately the Blues chances are very limited this season, and by keeping their stars they would be missing out on an opportunity to improve the team long-term.
Over his four year contract, Eric Brewer has used up 17 million in cap space, for which you’d expect a combined GVT of 45, but he has unfortunately produced only 11.6, costing the team over 33 goals. The veteran UFA is enjoying his best season in a long time, and could finally help the club by waiving his no-trade clause, and getting them an early pick or a blue chip prospect. Given Brewer’s hefty cap hit, the Blues may also need to use their ample cap room to take one in return, too.
The St. Louis Blues need to keep their skilled young team together, and patiently wait for the off season to get the veteran forward they need. In the mean time they should take advantage of their most valuable expendable asset to keep their system well-stocked.
Player Power Rankings (02/24)
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Thanks to Timo Seppa for last minute revisions for Detroit, Columbus and St. Louis. Someone else needed Conklin at the last minute (Detroit), Columbus wasn't to everyone's taste, and the St. Louis advice actually happened, but unfortunately before we could publish it.
Here are the originals.
The Problem: Goaltending
When Joey MacDonald is leading your team in save percentage, you know you have a problem. According to GVT, Detroit is ranked 20th in nets, almost dead last among playoff-bound teams, a weakness that is further aggravated by being merely average defensively. Chris Osgood is 38, out with a sports hernia and really not all that good even if he did return at 100%, leaving their fortunes in the hands of struggling sophomore Jimmy Howard.
The Fix: Bring back Ty Conklin from the St. Louis Blues.
Unfortunately the Detroit Red Wings don’t have the cap space for any major moves, and even have over 44 million already committed for next year. Any acquisition has to be an inexpensive one, without long-term carrying costs, which is why they tried to bring in Evgeni Nabokov with a cheap one-year deal.
That’s why veteran 34-year-old Alaskan Ty Conklin could be their best option. Don’t be fooled by his awful season in St. Louis, going into this season the former Red Wing’s post-lockout even-strength save percentage was identical to Nabokov’s. He’s a UFA that carries only a $1.3 million cap hit, and could be easily acquired for a middle prospect or draft choice.
Columbus Blue Jackets
The Problem: Puck-moving defenseman
Last year Anton Stralman scored 34 points, which is the most by a Blue Jacket defenseman since the lock-out. The absence of quality blueliners, especially those who can produce offensively, has been a problem so serious that they actually signed Mike Commodore to a five-year deal worth $3.75 million per season back in 2008-09.
The Fix: Wait until the off-season
Despite their recent success, the Columbus Blue Jackets are still a longshot to make the play-offs, qualifying barely a hundred times in a thousand simulations over at Hockey-Reference.com. Even though they stand to miss the play-offs for the tenth time in their eleven seasons, they shouldn’t trade away their future to rent an overpriced veteran, nor panic with a fire sale.
Given that so many teams have been willing to deal away good draft choices for depth talent, it’s a great time to move any UFAs that they do not intend to re-sign long-term, like possibly one or more of Chris Clark, Andrew Murray, Mathieu Garon, Ethan Moreau, and Jan Hejda. Columbus fans should be glad to have a conservative GM like Scott Howson, who will only move someone else – like young talent like Jakub Voracek or Steve Mason – if the offer is irresistibly advantageous to the club.
St. Louis Blues
The Problem: Veteran top-six forward
Quick, name a Blue over 30. It’s not easy to do given that there are only three. The St. Louis Blues are a young team poised to break out, and need some veteran leadership to help guide their prospects, and provide some much-needed secondary scoring.
The Fix: Move Eric Brewer for a Pick or a Prospect.
What a minute, right before we suggested they move their captain, didn’t we say they needed veteran leadership? Yes, but unfortunately the Blues chances are very limited this season, and by keeping their stars they would be missing out on an opportunity to improve the team long-term.
Over his four year contract, Eric Brewer has used up 17 million in cap space, for which you’d expect a combined GVT of 45, but he has unfortunately produced only 11.6, costing the team over 33 goals. The veteran UFA is enjoying his best season in a long time, and could finally help the club by waiving his no-trade clause, and getting them an early pick or a blue chip prospect. Given Brewer’s hefty cap hit, the Blues may also need to use their ample cap room to take one in return, too.
The St. Louis Blues need to keep their skilled young team together, and patiently wait for the off season to get the veteran forward they need. In the mean time they should take advantage of their most valuable expendable asset to keep their system well-stocked.