|
Displaying pretext
While interest in the Eastern Conference playoff picture largely centers around New Jersey—both due to the attention their Cinderella run has garnered and well as their huge potential impact in the playoffs—it's the Western Conference that has been a logjam all season long and continues to be so. Much, much better teams will miss the postseason in the West, and it's still hard to peg exactly who those teams might be even with a mere dozen games remaining on the schedule.
As with the East, let's glance at the standings to orient ourselves:
Western Conference standings (current)
Seed Team GP W Pts P%
1 Vancouver 71 46 101 .711
2 Detroit 69 41 90 .652
3 San Jose 71 39 88 .620
4 Los Angeles 70 39 85 .607
5 Phoenix 71 36 85 .599
6 Chicago 70 38 84 .600
7 Dallas 70 37 82 .586
8 Calgary 72 36 81 .563
9 Nashville 70 35 80 .571
10 Anaheim 69 37 79 .572
11 Minnesota 70 35 77 .550
12 Columbus 69 32 74 .536
13 St. Louis 69 31 71 .514
14 Colorado 68 26 60 .441
15 Edmonton 70 23 55 .393
The takeaway? It looks like Los Angeles, Phoenix and Chicago have separated themselves from the pack by a fraction, to perhaps have an upper hand in the race—but is that true? We'll see in a minute. After that, there are five or arguably six teams vying for two spots: Dallas, Calgary, Nashville, Anaheim, Minnesota and perhaps Columbus. So let's try to make some more sense out of the playoff picture by taking into account which teams have been playing well over the last half-season or so, as opposed to whose overall point totals have been inflated by a fast start:
Western Conference standings (projected)
Seed Team Pts GR Team P% Opponent P% Projected Pts
1 Vancouver 101 11 .722 .508 118.5
2 Detroit 90 13 .647 .596 105.8
3 San Jose 88 11 .625 .588 101.1
4 Phoenix 85 11 .639 .540 99.6
5 Chicago 84 12 .643 .579 98.9
6 Los Angeles 85 12 .571 .557 98.8
7 Calgary 81 10 .676 .510 95.9
8 Anaheim 79 13 .603 .559 94.7
9 Dallas 82 12 .514 .547 94.7
10 Nashville 80 12 .571 .533 94.4
11 Minnesota 77 12 .571 .534 91.4
12 Columbus 74 13 .544 .579 87.7
13 St. Louis 71 13 .441 .557 82.6
14 Colorado 60 14 .273 .554 67.7
15 Edmonton 55 12 .357 .559 63.6
As we thought, Phoenix, Chicago and Los Angeles appear to be in the clear (along with San Jose, if there had been any doubt). This will warm the hearts of all of us that favored the Blackhawks and Kings to make it to the postseason out of the pack, given their positive goal differentials a month or two ago when compared to the other contenders/pretenders.
| 
3 comments have been left for this article. 
Conn Smythe Watch: Lundqvist Leads
With all of the bubble teams winning last night, the bar is being raised even higher in the Western Conference...
Through March 17, here are my updated projections:
Vancouver 118.4, Detroit 108.0, San Jose 102.0, Phoenix 100.1, Chicago 97.0, Los Angeles 97.0, Dallas 96.2, Calgary 95.9, Nashville 95.6, Anaheim 95.6, Minnesota 90.0, Columbus 86.5, St. Louis 82.9, Colorado 66.5, Edmonton 62.8.
While Phoenix is separating themselves from the pack, GD darlings Chicago and Los Angeles are dropping right back into it. With Minnesota and Columbus in the rear view mirror, it's increasingly becoming six teams for four spots. I have to say that Dallas' recent resurgence is a surprise.
It's quite a neck-and-neck race, potentially with 96 point teams on the outside looking in.