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With a heavy schedule of 82 games per season, many hockey fans are not particularly aware of how the National Hockey League divides up its schedule. In fact, some fans may not know that the NHL does not employ a balanced schedule. A balanced schedule is a schedule that is essentially the same for every team in each conference and does not account for divisional rivalries. The point of employing a balanced schedule is to avoid providing teams in weaker divisions with an unfair advantage over teams that play in a stronger division. As the NHL schedule is currently constructed, each team plays 24 intra-division games, 40 games against teams inside their conference but outside of their division, 15 games against the opposite conference and 3 at-large games. Prior to the current schedule, NHL teams were playing divisional opponents a whopping 8 times per season. So, the NHL has made some changes to make the league more equitable, but has it done enough?
The Stanley Cup is supposed to be awarded to the best team in the NHL each season; but how can you give the trophy to one of the 16 best teams (16 teams make the playoffs—8 per conference) if a number of the 16 teams do not belong in the playoffs in the first place? That is because some teams play in easier divisions than others.
Sure the NHL’s current schedule may foster rivalries and, as a result, create storylines for the league to promote, but it is an inequitable process. With 24 games against intra-division teams, a team like the Nashville Predators has to play the Columbus Blue Jackets and Detroit Red Wings a total of 12 times per season. Whereas a team like the Anaheim Ducks plays the Los Angeles Kings and Phoenix Coyotes 12 times per season. Does that appear to be anything close to an equitable playing field to determine the Eastern Conference standings?
The fact that the NHL’s final standings are reflected in conference ranking is the biggest flaw in the league’s playoff system. How can you rank teams without consideration for division (aside from the top three spots in the Conference belonging to each division winner) if teams in the same conference play completely different schedules?
In determining strength of division, I felt the best indicator of division strength was divisional goal differential. More specifically, how many more goals the five teams in each division combined to score than allow. For example, the Nashville Predators play in a division in which its teams average 0.18 more goals-for than goals-against. In contrast, the Anaheim Ducks play in a division in which its teams average 0.09 more goals-against than goals-for (so -0.09).
By taking into account divisional goal differential, let’s take a look at how each team’s point outcome is affected by adjusting for divisional strength:
Legend:
PTS: Points
GF: Goals For
GA: Goals Allowed
GD: Goal Differential
VSDIV: Record versus Division
VSEAST: Record versus Eastern Conference
VSWEST: Record versus Western Conference
ADJPTS: Adjusted Points
PTSDIFF: Point Difference
Eastern Conference
Northeast
Team PTS GF GA PTS/G GD VSDIV VSEAST VSWEST ADJPTS PTSDIFF
Bruins 116 274 196 1.41 0.95 37.23 58.86 27.18 123.27 7.27
Canadiens 93 249 247 1.13 0.02 29.85 47.19 21.79 98.83 5.83
Sabres 91 250 234 1.11 0.20 29.21 46.18 21.32 96.71 5.71
Senators 83 217 237 1.01 -0.24 26.64 42.12 19.45 88.21 5.21
Maple Leafs 81 250 293 0.99 -0.52 26.00 41.10 18.98 86.08 5.08
Atlantic
Team PTS GF GA PTS/G GD VSDIV VSEAST VSWEST ADJPTS PTSDIFF
Devils 106 244 209 1.29 0.43 31.02 54.80 22.97 108.79 2.79
Penguins 99 264 239 1.21 0.30 28.98 51.18 21.45 101.60 2.60
Flyers 99 264 238 1.21 0.32 28.98 51.18 21.45 101.60 2.60
Rangers 95 210 218 1.16 -0.10 27.80 49.11 20.58 97.50 2.50
Islanders 61 201 279 0.74 -0.95 17.85 31.53 13.22 62.60 1.60
Southeast
Team PTS GF GA PTS/G GD VSDIV VSEAST VSWEST ADJPTS PTSDIFF
Capitals 108 272 245 1.32 0.33 27.08 47.41 20.57 95.06 -12.94
Hurricanes 97 239 226 1.18 0.16 24.32 42.59 18.47 85.38 -11.62
Panthers 93 234 231 1.13 0.04 23.32 40.83 17.71 81.85 -11.15
Thrashers 76 257 280 0.93 -0.28 19.05 33.37 14.47 66.89 -9.11
Lightning 66 210 279 0.80 -0.84 16.55 28.98 12.57 58.09 -7.91
Western Conference
Central
Team PTS GF GA PTS/G GD VSDIV VSWEST VSEAST ADJPTS PTSDIFF
Red Wings 112 295 244 1.37 0.62 39.98 62.16 29.40 131.54 19.54
Blackhawks 104 264 216 1.27 0.59 37.12 57.72 27.30 122.15 18.15
Blues 92 233 233 1.12 0.00 32.84 51.06 24.15 108.05 16.05
Blue Jackets 92 226 230 1.12 -0.05 32.84 51.06 24.15 108.05 16.05
Predators 88 213 233 1.07 -0.24 31.41 48.84 23.10 103.35 15.35
Pacific
Team PTS GF GA PTS/G GD VSDIV VSWEST VSEAST ADJPTS PTSDIFF
Sharks 117 257 204 1.43 0.65 30.44 55.89 23.64 109.96 -7.04
Ducks 91 245 238 1.11 0.09 23.67 43.47 18.38 85.53 -5.47
Stars 83 230 257 1.01 -0.33 21.59 39.65 16.77 78.01 -4.99
Coyotes 79 208 252 0.96 -0.54 20.55 37.74 15.96 74.25 -4.75
Kings 79 207 234 0.96 -0.33 20.55 37.74 15.96 74.25 -4.75
Northwest
Team PTS GF GA PTS/G GD VSDIV VSWEST VSEAST ADJPTS PTSDIFF
Canucks 100 246 220 1.22 0.32 27.47 45.57 21.11 94.15 -5.85
Flames 98 254 248 1.20 0.07 26.92 44.66 20.69 92.27 -5.73
Wild 89 219 200 1.09 0.23 24.45 40.56 18.79 83.79 -5.21
Oilers 85 234 248 1.04 -0.17 23.35 38.73 17.95 80.03 -4.97
Avalanche 69 199 257 0.84 -0.71 18.95 31.44 14.57 64.96 -4.04
Legend:
DAGD: Division Average Goal Differential
Division DAGD
Northeast 0.08
Atlantic 0.00
Southeast -0.12
Central 0.18
Pacific -0.09
Northwest -0.05
In explaining the above tables, let’s take the “VSDIV” column as our example. More explicitly let’s evaluate the Nashville Predators’ adjusted points versus the Central Division. The Predators finished the season with 88 points in 82 games (1.07 points per game). My argument is that because the Predators play in such a tough division and as they play the teams within their division more than any other teams, the 88 points that they finished with is not an accurate indicator of how good they actually are. Accordingly, I have come up with an “adjusted” points total for each team which reflects the strength of the teams they have to play based on the NHL’s current schedule format.
Going back to the Predators, the average goal differential per-game for the Central Division was 0.18. The Central division goal differential was 0.22 goals higher than the collective goal-differential for non-Central Division teams (-.04). This comparison indicates the relative strength of the division compared to the other divisions. As Nashville played 24 games against Central Division teams, their “total points” for intra-division games is adjusted to reflect the strength of their division. Accordingly, because they play in such a strong division relative to the rest of the league, their points total is adjusted to 31.41. The same calculations are conducted for their 40 non-division intra-conference games and their 18 out of conference games.
Quite apparently, the Predators’ playoff chances were inhibited by the division they play in. Had the team not been subjected to such a difficult intra-division schedule, Nashville would be sitting sixth in the Western Conference and would currently be participating in the NHL’s second season.
Let’s take a look at the total adjusted standings:
Standings
Eastern Conference Western Conference
(1) Boston Bruins (1) Detroit Red Wings
(2) New Jersey Devils (2) Chicago Blackhawks
(3) Pittsburgh Penguins (3) San Jose Sharks
(4) Philadelphia Flyers (4) St. Louis Blues
(5) Montreal Canadiens (5) Columbus Blue Jackets
(6) New York Rangers (6) Nashville Predators
(7) Buffalo Sabres (7) Vancouver Canucks
(8) Washington Capitals (8) Calgary Flames
(9) Ottawa Senators (9) Anaheim Ducks
(10) Toronto Maple Leafs (10) Minnesota Wild
(11) Carolina Hurricanes (11) Edmonton Oilers
(12) Florida Panthers (12) Dallas Stars
(13) Atlanta Thrashers (13) Phoenix Coyotes
(14) New York Islanders (14) Los Angeles Kings
(15) Tampa Bay Lightning (15) Colorado Avalanche
A couple of fairly significant changes become evident when we look at the total adjusted standings. First, both Nashville and Buffalo would have made this year’s playoffs had they not played in such a difficult division. These two teams would have taken the places of Anaheim and Carolina respectively. Clearly, Anaheim and Carolina (two teams that certainly had their struggles) benefitted greatly from playing weak competition like Phoenix and Tampa Bay six times per season.
Not only are team’s playoff chances affected by the adjusted standings, so is Conference seeding.
Under the adjusted standings, here is how the Eastern Conference playoff matchups would look:
1. Boston Bruins versus 8. Buffalo Sabres
2. New Jersey Devils versus 6. New York Rangers
3. Washington Capitals (only this high because division winner) versus 6. Montreal Canadiens
4. Pittsburgh Penguins versus 5. Philadelphia Flyers
Under the adjusted standings, here is how the Western Conference playoff matchups would look:
1. Detroit Red Wings versus 8. Calgary Flames
2. San Jose Sharks versus 7. Nashville Predators
3. Vancouver Canucks (only this because division winner) versus Columbus Blue Jackets
4. Chicago Blackhawks versus St. Louis Blues
So, under the adjusted standings, only one playoff matchup would remain the same—Pittsburgh versus Philadelphia. In today’s game, with teams being so clumped together, the fact that seven of eight matchups are different is very significant.
Finally, we would be remiss if we did not point out to the fact that not only are the playoff standings affected by a heavier division schedule, but so are the draft lottery standings. Under these adjusted point calculations, the Tampa Bay Lightning would have ended the season with the worst record in the NHL. Considering the Islanders won the Draft Lottery this past Tuesday, it is fair to say that if the NHL employed a balanced schedule, the Lightning, not the Islanders, would have their pick of Jonathan Tavares or Victor Hedman at this summer’s NHL Entry Draft in Montreal.
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