April 12, 2011
NHL Playoffs, First Round
Vancouver Canucks vs. Chicago Blackhawks

by Robert Vollman

The Vancouver Canucks led the league by a whopping 10 points and how are they rewarded? By having to face the defending Stanley Cup champions in the opening round. Ouch!

Don't let the way Chicago barely snuck into the postseason fool you—they are still one of the league's most dangerous teams. At even strength with the score tied, they have the second-best Fenwick percentage in the league, just 0.17% ahead of third place Vancouver. These stats confirm what you have already observed with your own eyes—the Blackhawks still dominate play.

The Vancouver Canucks made some shrewd offseason moves to address all the concerns that were raised by their second-round exit in 2010, but will it be enough to avoid being eliminated by the Chicago Blackhawks for the third straight season?

Vancouver Offense vs. Chicago Defense

Vancouver Canucks Offense: 34.0 GVT (Rank: 1st in NHL)
Chicago Blackhawks Defense: 12.5 GVT (Rank: 7th in NHL)
Chicago Blackhawks Goaltending: -6.2 GVT (Rank: 18th in NHL)

Total: Vancouver Canucks, +27.7 GVT

In general, a team's top lines play against the opponent's top lines, which partially negates the advantage the league's most skilled players have. But do you remember the Anaheim Ducks' Stanley Cup championship in 2006-07? The line of Travis Moen, Samuel Pahlsson and Rob Niedermayer was able to shut down top opposing lines, allowing Ryan Getzlaf, Teemu Selanne and Corey Perry to match up against the weaker lines, and consequently destroy them. Well, the Canucks have transitioned to the Ducks model a couple of years ago, allowing their top line of Alexandre Burrows and the Sedins to absolutely dominate their weaker opponents. All three were in the league's top eight in 5-on-5 scoring rate, though in the top-four in zone starts—all three taking over 70% of their faceoffs in the opposing zone!

Beyond their celebrated top line, the Canucks are still getting solid top-six level offense from Mason Raymond, Ryan Kesler, Christopher Higgins and Mikael Samuelsson, which is particularly impressive given the typical caliber of opponents they generally face. The only question mark for the league's best offensive team is on the blue line. They've done an amazing job putting together possibly the best and certainly the most cost-effective corps of defensemen in the league, but can a team reach the Stanley Cup without one of those elite puck-moving players? Chris Pronger, Scott Niedermayer, Duncan Keith, Nicklas Lidstrom…and now Christian Ehrhoff? We'll see!

Chicago's key shutdown line is in disarray while Dave Bolland sits out with a concussion, so linemates Fernando Pisano and Bryan Bickell will have to rely on tough guy Jake Dowell until he returns. Up top, Jonathan Toews has evolved into one of the game's premier two-way forwards, much like Vancouver's Ryan Kesler. Most impressively, Chicago's blue line features three of the league's top defensive defensemen including Niklas Hjalmarsson and 2010 Olympic gold medalist pairing Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith. Shutting down the Sedins may be a tall order, but if the duo can shut down Team Russia and Team USA, they ought to be able to at least slow down the twins.

To those who believe that there is cause for concern in net, note that Corey Crawford's .924 even strength save percentage this season is far better than Antti Niemi's .914 last year, which was good enough. While it's obviously better to have an elite goalie than not, recent history has shown that teams can reach the finals with goalies like Niemi, Michael Leighton, Brian Boucher, Chris Osgood, and others clearly worse than Chicago's rookie netminder.

Advantage: Vancouver Canucks

Chicago Offense vs. Vancouver Defense

Chicago Blackhawks Offense: 28.0 GVT (Rank: 4th in NHL)
Vancouver Canucks Defense: 10.3 GVT (Rank: 9th in NHL)
Vancouver Canucks Goaltending: 29.6 GVT (Rank: 2nd in NHL)

Total: Chicago Blackhawks, -11.9 GVT

While the salary cap meant the Chicago Blackhawks had to unfortunately reward poorly-managed teams like Atlanta (Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd) and Toronto (Kris Versteeg) with their secondary players, they are still more than adequately stocked with offense. Beyond their big names Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Sharp and Marian Hossa, the Blackhawks are still blessed with four more forwards that score at a top-six level at even strength: Bryan Bickell, Dave Bolland, Tomas Kopecky and newly-acquired Michael Frolik. Few teams get as much offense from the point as Chicago, who are blessed with last year's Norris Trophy winner Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Bryan Campbell and trade acquisition Chris Campoli.

Faced with perennial Selke finalist Ryan Kesler and gritty pest Alexandre Burrows, Chicago is not going to find scoring very easy. As discussed in the previous section, the Canucks have also crafted a shutdown line based on the classic Anaheim '07 model. Manny Malhotra had the lowest offensive zone start in the league, while Raffi Torres was third-lowest—Blair Betts was the only other forward below 30%. Jannik Hansen is right behind at 13th-lowest. They have proven consistently capable of stopping the league's top lines. Malhotra's injury is quite unfortunate, but fortunately the Canucks have all their defensemen healthy for the first time this season. Last year, the Blackhawks had their way with the weak Vancouver D-Line, but if they think they can enjoy the same advantage this year given the addition of Dan Hamhuis and Keith Ballard, and the dramatic improvement of Kevin Bieksa, then they could be in for a big surprise.

Of course, Vancouver's greatest asset is in net. Some people try to sell the idea that Roberto Luongo isn't a clutch goalie, but we're not buying. Year after year after year Luongo puts up top-three numbers, and we're supposed to ignore his post-lockout even strength save percentage of .928 (second to Tomas Vokoun) because of two or three games? No way. Boston is arguably the only playoff team as fortunate as Vancouver between the pipes.

Advantage: Vancouver Canucks

The Players

Legend:

RPM: Relative Plus/Minus
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
GVT: Goaltending GVT
GVT: Total GVT, includes Shootout GVT

Vancouver Canucks

Player       		P GP G  A PTS	+/- 	RPM 	OGVT 	DGVT	GVT
Daniel Sedin    	F 82 41 63 104 	30 	15.5 	23.4 	3.2 	26.2
Ryan Kesler     	F 82 41 32 73 	24  	9.3 	14.0 	5.7 	19.3
Henrik Sedin    	F 82 19 75 94 	26 	10.0 	15.3 	3.0 	18.0
Alexandre Burrows	F 72 26 22 48 	26 	11.6 	8.5 	4.7 	14.3
Christian Ehrhoff	D 79 14 36 50 	19 	2.7 	9.2 	3.5 	12.7
Alexander Edler   	D 51 8  25 33 	13 	1.1 	5.8 	3.6 	9.4
Dan Hamhuis     	D 64 6  17 23 	29 	13.6 	3.0 	6.2 	9.2
Mikael Samuelsson	F 75 18 32 50  	8 	-2.5 	7.5 	1.5 	8.4
Manny Malhotra*   	F 72 11 19 30  	9 	-1.4 	3.1 	4.0 	7.1
Kevin Bieksa    	D 66 6  16 22 	32	17.0 	2.5 	7.4 	9.8
Mason Raymond   	F 70 15 24 39 	8 	-2.8 	5.8 	2.2 	8.1
Jannik Hansen   	F 82 9  20 29 	13	2.5 	2.5 	3.4 	5.9
Chris Higgins   	F 62 13 15 28 	5  	6.3 	4.0 	2.9 	5.8
Raffi Torres    	F 80 14 15 29 	4 	-4.6 	3.3 	1.1 	5.0
Jeff Tambellini 	F 62 9  8 17 	10  	4.7 	1.3 	1.5 	3.2
Keith Ballard   	D 65 2  5  7	10  	0.4 	-0.7 	3.7 	3.0
Andrew Alberts  	D 42 1  6  7  	0 	-6.8 	0.2 	1.1 	1.2
Sami Salo      		D 27 3  4  7 	-3 	-7.5 	0.6 	0.2 	0.8
Alexandre Bolduc	F 24 2  2  4  	1 	-0.6 	0.0 	0.5 	0.5
Victor Oreskovich  	F 16 0  3  3  	1  	0.3 	0.1 	0.2 	0.4
Tanner Glass    	F 73 3  7 10 	-5 	-11.1	-1.5	1.8 	0.4
Peter Schaefer   	F 16 1  1  2 	-3 	-5.2 	-0.7 	0.8 	0.0
Aaron Rome     		D 56 1  4  5 	1 	-8.3 	-1.8 	1.7 	-0.1
Aaron Volpatti   	F 15 1  1  2 	-1 	-1.7 	-0.1 	0.0 	-0.1
Christopher Tanev  	D 29 0  1  1 	0 	-3.6 	-1.1 	0.6 	-0.6
Maxim Lapierre   	F 78 6  6 12	-14  -15.9	-2.4 	0.8 	-1.7

Goalie      		GP  	GAA  	SV%  	GGVT 	DGVT 	GVT
Roberto Luongo  	59.8 	2.10 	.928	30.5 	0.3 	27.3
Cory Schneider  	22.9 	2.23 	.928 	12.5 	-0.3 	13.0

*Injured

Chicago Blackhawks

Player       		P GP G  A PTS	+/- 	RPM 	OGVT 	DGVT	GVT
Jonathan Toews  	F 80 32 44 76 	25 	21.1 	13.7 	5.7 	20.8
Patrick Kane   		F 73 27 46 73  	7  	4.7 	13.3 	3.1 	16.4
Patrick Sharp   	F 74 34 37 71 	-1 	-3.8 	13.9 	2.7 	15.6
Marian Hossa   		F 65 25 32 57  	9  	6.1 	11.3 	3.4 	14.1
Brent Seabrook  	D 82 9  39 48  	0 	-6.3 	8.8 	4.3 	13.1
Brian Campbell  	D 65 5  22 27 	28	23.9 	4.3 	6.8 	11.1
Duncan Keith   		D 82 7  38 45 	-1 	-7.2 	5.8 	4.6 	10.3
Dave Bolland   		F 61 15 22 37 	11  	7.5 	5.4 	3.5 	8.9
Tomas Kopecky   	F 81 15 27 42 	-13 	-15.3	3.1 	1.2 	4.3
Bryan Bickell   	F 78 17 20 37  	6  	3.3 	4.7 	2.8 	7.4
Chris Campoli   	D 77 4  17 21  	0  	7.6 	2.2 	4.6 	6.8
Michael Frolik  	F 80 11 27 38  	2  	5.7 	3.4 	2.4 	6.2
Viktor Stalberg 	F 77 12 12 24  	2 	-0.6 	1.8 	2.1 	5.2
Troy Brouwer  		F 79 17 19 36 	-2 	-4.0 	3.2 	2.0 	4.9
N. Hjalmarsson  	D 80 3  7 10 	13  	7.1 	-0.7 	5.2 	4.5
Jake Dowell    		F 79 6  15 21  	5  	1.4 	0.5 	2.9 	3.4
Fernando Pisani 	F 60 7  9 16  	0 	-3.0 	1.3 	1.9 	3.2
Jassen Cullimore 	D 36 0  8  8  	4  	2.1 	0.9 	1.8 	2.6
Nick Leddy    		D 46 4  3  7 	-3 	-5.4 	0.0 	1.3 	1.3
Ryan Johnson   		F 34 1  5  6 	-2 	-3.3 	-0.9 	0.7 	-0.1
John Scott    		D 40 0  1  1  	0 	-0.6 	-0.7 	0.6 	-0.2
Jordan Hendry   	D 37 1  0  1 	-2 	-3.0 	-0.9 	0.5 	-0.4

Goalie      		GP  	GAA  	SV%  	GGVT 	DGVT 	GVT
Corey Crawford 		55.6 	2.30 	.917 	11.1 	1.4  	15.0
Marty Turco   		27.2 	3.01 	.897 	-7.5 	0.3  	-9.8

Vancouver Power Play vs. Chicago Penalty Kill

Vancouver Power Play: 23.6 GVT (Rank: 1st in NHL)
Chicago Penalty Kill: -7.1 GVT (Rank: 24th in NHL)

Total: Vancouver Canucks, +30.7 GVT

Vancouver led the league on the power play with a 24.3% clip, thanks largely to their deadly top unit of Alexander Edler and Christian Ehrhoff on defense (5.8 power play points per 60 minutes), and Ryan Kesler and the Sedins up front—Daniel scored an amazing 8.1 power play points per 60 minutes. What they lack in depth they more than make up for with perhaps the deadliest quintet since the lockout.

Despite the blue line trio of Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith and Niklas Hjalmarsson, penalty killing is one of Chicago's few true weaknesses. They killed off only 79.2% of penalties, second-last to the Phoenix Coyotes among postseason teams. Disciplined play will be the key, especially in the absence of their top penalty killer Dave Bolland, or otherwise skilled players like Jonathan Toews and Marian Hossa will be tiring themselves out preventing goals rather than producing them.

Advantage: Vancouver Canucks (big time)

Chicago Power Play vs. Vancouver Penalty Kill

Chicago Power Play: 16.6 GVT (Rank: 2nd in NHL)
Vancouver Penalty Kill: 9.9 GVT (Rank: 4th in NHL)

Total: Chicago Blackhawks, +6.7 GVT

Chicago scored 23.1% of the time with the man advantage, 4th-best in the league. Unlike the Canucks, they have a depth of power play weaponry. When Bolland returns, they'll have two full lines of forwards who regularly play the power play and are over the 5.0 power play points per 60 minutes mark: Patrick Sharp, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa, Troy Brouwer and Dave Bolland. On defense, it's mostly the Keith-and-Seabrook show, using the struggling Brian Campbell and Chris Campoli as sparingly as necessary.

Vancouver's penalty killing will suffer in Manny Malhotra's absence, but they still have top penalty killing combos in Ryan Kesler and Alexandre Burrows, and whoever pairs up with Jannik Hansen (Christopher Higgins, perhaps?). On defense, the return of Sami Salo ought to take some pressure off the Canuck workhorse pairing of Dan Hamhuis and Kevin Bieksa.

Advantage: Chicago Blackhawks

Season Series

Chicago began the season with the advantage, winning 2-1 in a shootout before blowing away the Canucks 7-0. Vancouver has rallied since then, shutting out the Blackhawks 3-0 and getting the better of Chicago 4-3 in their final encounter.

Advantage: Even

Injuries and Intangibles

Chicago has eliminated Vancouver two years in a row, so perhaps it's become psychological, much like Montreal's historical upsets over Boston. There are those who think that the Sedins lack the heart to fight through four rounds of postseason hockey, or that Luongo isn't clutch, but such things are outside the scope at Hockey Prospectus, unless they can be shown objectively. (They can't.)

Injury-wise the Canucks will have to play without Manny Malhotra, which is a far more injury than most pundits realize, as explained above. Fortunately, all six defensemen are healthy at the same time, and all other forwards are ready to go, except Raffi Torres is suspended for the first two games. As for Chicago, Dave Bolland is out with a concussion but could return, as could Troy Brouwer who is day-to-day with a shoulder injury.

Since both teams are relatively healthy, the real story could be whether Vancouver can beat the top teams. The Canucks are 14-13 in regulation against playoff-bound teams, as tabulated by David Johnson at Hockey Numbers. That's a small sample size, and it turned out to be worthless information when discovered about the Detroit Red Wings years ago. So in the end, we'll give the edge to Chicago based on their better discipline (7th in the league, as compared to Vancouver at 21st) and that Dave Bolland is likely to return while Malhotra isn't.

Advantage: Chicago Blackhawks

Prediction

Vancouver Canucks: 77.0 GVT (Rank: 1st in NHL)
Chicago Blackhawks: 33.0 GVT (Rank: 7th in NHL)

Total: Vancouver Canucks, 44.0 GVT

Normally, playing well in the regular season gives you a first-round match-up that is as close to a bye as possible in these days of parity (up to a 70% chance of winning). Unfortunately, the Canucks drew what could essentially be a coin flip—Chicago could actually be the next best team in the league after Vancouver. On the bright side, if you're going to face the Hawks, you might as well do it in the first round when everyone is fresh and healthy. Test your mettle in the first round, and either you'll gain the confidence to beat anyone, or else you can get the good tee times before Anaheim sews them up.

Vancouver Canucks in 7 games

Robert Vollman is an author of Hockey Prospectus. You can contact Robert by clicking here or click here to see Robert's other articles.