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For the second year in a row, the San Jose Sharks and Detroit Red Wings will meet in the second round of the NHL playoffs. Last season's matchup was an uneven one—the Sharks lost a single game en route to a convincing victory. This season's series has also been uneven in San Jose's favor, with the Sharks taking three of four games.
Not that this means anything. The Red Wings took seven games to beat the Coyotes last season; this year they swept them. San Jose, meanwhile, was given a surprisingly stiff test from an undermanned Los Angeles Kings' team. Let's look at the numbers.
San Jose Offense vs. Detroit Defense
San Jose Sharks Offense: +19.0 GVT (6th in the NHL)
Detroit Red Wings Defense: -5.5 GVT (19th in the NHL)
Detroit Red Wings Goaltending: -8.9 GVT (19th in the NHL)
Total: San Jose Sharks, +33.4 GVT
The Sharks have a deep and capable set of offensive forwards. The top line features a trio of stars: Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley and Patrick Marleau. Behind those three are a number of highly competent support players, some of whom arguably vied with the top three as headliners, including Joe Pavelski, a splendid two-way forward, Ryane Clowe, who leads the team in scoring entering the second round, and Logan Couture, who might win the rookie of the year award. That's not even mentioning Devin Setoguchi, who scored 31 goals two years ago.
The Red Wings had an uncharacteristically bad season on defense. No playoff team allowed more than their 2.89 goals against per game. We have also seen an interesting shift in strategy from previous seasons in how their coaching staff has deployed its defensemen. Last year, three defensemen played more than 23:00 per game; this year, only one did—Nicklas Lidstrom. Lidstrom's 23:28 led the team, but still represented easily the lowest total of his post-Lockout career.
This shifting utilization of the defensemen changed even more dramatically during the playoffs. Lidstrom's ice-time was diminished; only Ruslan Salei played fewer minutes at even-strength and overall. It could be that the coaches made a conscious decision to keep his minutes to a minimum in a series where they had a hefty lead, but even so it shows that they're conscious of the fact that they can't overwork him.
In net, Jimmy Howard had a sub-average season, posting a .908 save percentage.
Advantage: San Jose Sharks
Detroit Offense vs. San Jose Defense
Detroit Red Wings Offense: +33.0 GVT (2nd in the NHL)
San Jose Sharks Defense: +12.2 GVT (8th in the NHL)
San Jose Sharks Goaltending: +0.6 GVT (17th in the NHL)
Total: Detroit Red Wings, +20.2 GVT
What the Red Wings lacked this season in defense they made up for in offense, trailing only the Presidents' Trophy-winning Canucks in goal-scoring. The Red Wings can answer the Sharks' holy trinity of offense with a dynamic duo of their own: Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk, who each hit the point-per-game plateau.
Meanwhile, the Red Wings' depth players are more than capable of running up the score. From the top line down to the fourth line, every set of forwards can get the job done. Johan Franzen and Danny Cleary both topped 2.00 Points per 60 minutes at even-strength in the regular season, while the quartet of Darren Helm, Todd Bertuzzi, Valtteri Filppula and Jiri Hudler were not far behind.
Dan Boyle has been playing nearly half the game not only for the entire regular season but also throughout the Sharks' playoff series with Los Angeles. Marc-Edouard Vlasic plays almost as much at even-strength and matches Boyle on the penalty kill. Vlasic's a tremendous defensive blueliner, and he ranked 15th in defensive GVT among NHL skaters.
In net, the Sharks exit Round One with more questions than they had entering it. They had settled on Antti Niemi as their starter after a great regular season run (including a .920 save percentage), but he was occasionally brutal in the first round, posting a .863 save percentage. Antero Niittymaki was much better in limited duty, and could step in despite a poor regular season.
Advantage: Detroit Red Wings
San Jose Power Play vs. Detroit Penalty Kill
San Jose Sharks Power Play: +15.6 GVT (3rd in the NHL)
Detroit Red Wings Penalty Kill: -1.0 GVT (17th in the NHL)
Total: San Jose Sharks, +16.6 GVT
The Sharks power play is lethal. Thornton, Heatley and Marleau are a great start to any power play unit, and the addition of Dan Boyle and Joe Pavelski only adds to the firepower. Comparing them to a slightly below average Detroit penalty kill reveals a decided mismatch.
Advantage: San Jose Sharks
Detroit Power Play vs. San Jose Penalty Kill
Detroit Red Wings Power Play: +12.9 GVT (5th in the NHL)
San Jose Sharks Penalty Kill: -7.3 GVT (25th in the NHL)
Total: Detroit Red Wings, +20.2 GVT
The situation stays the same when we swap the units, except this time the Red Wings come out on top. Nicklas Lidstrom may have seen his ice-time drop, but he's amazing on the man advantage: his 39 power play points ranks third in the league, not among defensemen but among all skaters. Three more points would have tied him with Daniel Sedin for the league lead.
San Jose's penalty kill was brutal.
Advantage: Detroit Red Wings
Season Series Results
Detroit won the first game this season between these two teams, 5-3. After that it was all San Jose, with the Sharks winning 5-2, 4-3 and 3-1.
Advantage: San Jose Sharks
Injuries and Intangibles
Injuries don't appear to be a major factor in this series. Henrik Zetterberg missed the first round with a knee injury, but he's expected to be back in time for the first game against San Jose. Backup goaltender Chris Osgood is also still on the shelf.
For San Jose, Ian White is recovering from a slight head injury sustained in the first round.
Advantage: San Jose Sharks
Prediction
San Jose Sharks: +35.0 GVT (5th in the NHL)
Detroit Red Wings: +20.0 GVT (11th in the NHL)
Total: San Jose Sharks, +15.0 GVT
This should be a high-scoring affair, based on the fact that both of these teams' strengths are based on goal-scoring. It's also the kind of series that could go either way, but I give the Sharks a slight edge.
Sharks in six games
Jonathan Willis is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Jonathan by clicking here or click here to see Jonathan's other articles.
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NHL Playoffs, Second R... (04/28)
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