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It's the battle of the so-called choke artists! Already dogged for years with the reputation of underachieving in the postseason, Vancouver and San Jose both managed to quickly take 3-0 series leads—first round vs. Chicago for the Canucks, second round vs. the Red Wings for the Sharks—only to come within an unlucky bounce of blowing it. At least one of these teams will have the opportunity to finally shed their skin, but who will it be?
Vancouver Offense vs. San Jose Defense
Vancouver Canucks Offense: +34.0 GVT (Rank: 1st in NHL)
San Jose Sharks Defense: +12.2 GVT (Rank: 8th in NHL)
San Jose Sharks Goaltending: +0.6 GVT (Rank: 17th in NHL)
Total: Vancouver Canucks, +21.2 GVT
Despite being outscored 33-30 in the postseason, Vancouver is in the Western final. So far they've been riding the back of their true MVP, the man who always gets the truly tough minutes, Mr. Nostrils himself, Ryan Kesler. Over the first two rounds, Kesler tied Detroit's Pavel Datsyuk for the NHL lead in points.
Player G A PTS +/- ATOI
Kesler 5 10 15 +6 23:24
D. Sedin 6 4 10 -8 19:41
H. Sedin 1 8 9 -8 20:42
Even with their hand-picked minutes against lesser opponents and in the offensive zone, Daniel and Henrik Sedin haven't been as successful as Kesler. In fairness, Roberto Luongo has only been stopping about 85% of the shots behind the talented twins—Daniel's PDO is just 907! On the other hand, his relative Corsi is a whopping 24.9 so far this postseason—he just hasn't been able to translate that into a lot of goals. Given his six points against the Sharks in the regular season, he just might explode this round.
All together, Vancouver has the third lowest goals scored per game in the postseason, so they need some secondary scoring. Kesler, the Sedins, Alexandre Burrows and defensemen Christian Ehrhoff and Alexander Edler have 57 of Vancouver's 83 points. 33% of the team producing 69% of its offense— that has to change.
As for San Jose, the big story is Douglas Murray, who leads the postseason with 51 hits, and has blocked 34 shots—the most by a non-Lightning. He's shut down Datsyuk and Zetterberg, but against whom do you send him this round, the Sedin line, or Kesler's?
In nets, Antti Niemi has stopped just 90.6% of the shots, down from 92.0% in the regular season, but in line with the 91% he stopped during his Stanley Cup winning run with Chicago last year. Niemi is good enough, but he won't be able to steal any games that turn into Canuck shooting galleries.
Advantage: Vancouver Canucks
San Jose Offense vs. Vancouver Defense
San Jose Sharks Offense: +19.0 GVT (Rank: 6th in the NHL)
Vancouver Canucks Defense: +10.3 GVT (Rank: 9th in NHL)
Vancouver Canucks Goaltending: +29.6 GVT (Rank: 2nd in NHL)
Total: San Jose Sharks, -20.9 GVT
So far, San Jose has been a close second to Pittsburgh in shots per game, but it hasn't been because of their big names, it's been because of their tremendous depth at forward.
G A PTS +/-
Thornton, Heatley and Marleau 8 17 25 -3
Clowe, Couture and Setoguchi 16 17 33 +6
If the Canucks key in on Thornton, Heatley and Marleau—the latter of which Jeremy Roenick called gutless for his allegedly uninspired performance against Detroit—expect the Sharks to continue to rely on that secondary talent. In some cases, it can come at a price, as Ryan Clowe has also taken too many minor penalties—his nine are the second most in the postseason, and he also leads the league with 19 giveaways. On the blue line is the always reliable Dan Boyle, who leads all defensemen with 11 points.
One of the key reasons the Canucks have allowed the third fewest shots per game is Kevin Bieksa, who has been Bieksellent. He has logged a lot of tough minutes—almost 26 per game along with Dan Hamhuis. Bieksa, along with Kesler, Maxim Lapierre and Edler are four of the top five in the postseason in hits, with at least 42 apiece. As for Kesler, he has 16 takeaways, second to the great Datsyuk, and has won 53.8% of his draws.
Between the pipes, Roberto Luongo's save percentage is .917, near his career average of .919. He's arguably one of the league's best goalies, and you can expect him to steal at least one game by himself.
Advantage: Vancouver Canucks
Vancouver Power Play vs. San Jose Penalty Kill
Vancouver Canucks Power Play: +23.6 GVT (Rank: 1st in NHL)
San Jose Sharks Penalty Kill: -7.3 GVT (Rank: 25th in NHL)
Total: Vancouver Canucks, +30.9 GVT
Vancouver's power play, which was best in the league in the regular season, has been humming along at 22%, good for fifth among postseason teams. San Jose's penalty kill has been a fairly average 82.7%, but was truly awful during the regular season.
Advantage: Vancouver Canucks, big-time
San Jose Power Play vs. Vancouver Penalty Kill
San Jose Sharks Power Play: +15.6 GVT (Rank: 3rd in NHL)
Vancouver Canucks Penalty Kill: +9.9 GVT (Rank: 4th in NHL)
Total: San Jose Sharks, +5.7 GVT
San Jose had one of the best power plays in the regular season, especially when you consider how many shots they took. They have two full units of great power play talent, but unfortunately they've only converted on 13.7% of opportunities in the playoffs, fourth-worst. Vancouver's got a solid penalty kill, thanks to Kesler, Burrows and their stellar blue line. Even without Manny Malhotra, they have killed 86% of their postseason penalties, good for fifth.
Advantage: San Jose Sharks
Season Series
Vancouver and San Jose met four times in the regular season. Two of them couldn't be settled in either regulation or overtime, and a third was a narrow 4-3 Canuck victory. The only clear winner was an early 6-1 squash by the Canucks. These two teams have never met in the postseason.
Advantage: Vancouver Canucks
Injuries and Intangibles
It looked like San Jose were the ones that were going to get the extra rest, but now they'll be crawling into Vancouver a little tired and sore from their hard-fought battle with the Red Wings.
The only thing really going for the Sharks is their hot hand on the draw—they've won 53.7% of their faceoffs, thanks to Joe Thornton's 60%. If the officials are actually serious about clamping down on diving and embellishments of that nature, that could also get the Sharks a few more opportunities with the man advantage—minus the ones Thornton takes.
Advantage: Vancouver Canucks
Prediction
Vancouver Canucks: +77.0 GVT (Rank: 1st in NHL)
San Jose Sharks: +35.0 GVT (Rank: 5th in NHL)
Total: Vancouver Canucks, +42.0 GVT
It would be a shame to lose my lucky perfect record on a series like this, but the Canucks have had a little extra rest, a better goalie and are quite simply the better team. Their toughest competition could very well have been in the first round. Despite being an excellent team with great scoring depth, San Jose is likely to fall short this time.
Canucks in six games
Robert Vollman is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Robert by clicking here or click here to see Robert's other articles.
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NHL Playoffs, Conferen... (05/11)
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