April 24, 2009
Numbers On Ice
GVT Rankings

by Tom Awad

What a difference a week makes! Only 10 days ago, every hockey analyst on the face of the Earth was falling over themselves to make their playoff predictions and to explain that, regardless of the previous playoff failures, the San Jose Sharks really were the team to beat this year. Now after four less-than-inspiring games against the Anaheim Ducks, the Sharks are on the brink of their biggest playoff flop yet. Should they be eliminated, everyone will be scrambling for an explanation of how they lost to the “experience” of the Ducks, even though the Ducks are backstopped by a first-year goaltender and the Sharks added many Stanley Cup rings in the offseason, specifically for this reason.

Luckily for me (and my readers!), the Bayesian power rankings had the Bruins and Red Wings ranked #1 and #2 at the season’s end, rankings which seem wise in retrospect. Since power rankings are less interesting come playoff time, I figured this week I would show the final regular-season GVT team results instead.

Team GVT splits up all of a team’s goals for and goals against by situation, and compares that to the league average to see where a team ranks, what are its strong points and what are its weak points. The advantage of this approach is that it makes it easy to compare apples with apples: for example, if a team has a 24% power-play rate, but its goaltenders have a 0.890 save percentage, will that team be good or bad? Such questions are impossible to answer unless we convert everything back to hockey’s basic currency, goals. When analyzing a team’s power-play numbers, for instance, I also factor in short-handed goals against (which are always ignored in power-play efficiency stats, something I have never understood) as well as penalties drawn, which are just another way of scoring more power-play goals.

I hope these stats can be useful for people in understanding how the playoff results have differed from the regular-season so far. A good example of this is the Sharks’ power-play, which was ranked near the top of the league, and the Ducks’ penalty-killing, near the bottom. Yet the Sharks have scored only two power-play goals in one of their games and were shut out in the three others, which nobody would have predicted and goes a long way towards explaining the Ducks’ 3-1 lead.

Legend:

Off: Even Strength Offense

Def: Even Strength Defense

Goal: Even Strength Goaltending

Total: Even Strength Total

PPO: Power Play Offense

PPD: Power Play Defense

PEND: Penalties Drawn

PPT: Power Play Total

SHO: Short-Handed/Penalty Killing Offense

SHD: Short-Handed/Penalty Killing Defense

PENT: Penalties Taken

SHT: Short-Handed/Penalty Killing Total

	      Even-Strength Stats     Power-Play Stats	   Short-Handed Stats
	
Team	     Off   Def	 Goal Total  PPO  PPD  PEND  PPT  SHO  SHD   PENT   SHT

Ducks	     -1.8   2.2	 10.9  11.3  14.4 -0.9 -5.3   8.2 -2.8	-5.0  -7.3 -15.1
Thrashers     7.9 -13.2	 -6.4 -11.7   1.3 -1.8	2.7   2.2  4.6 -18.6  -4.2  18.2
Bruins	     25.4   1.9	 29.4  56.7  14.7  0.2 -4.6  10.3  1.0   4.0   5.8  10.8
Sabres	     -0.8  -9.3	  7.5  -2.6   7.2  3.2	2.8  13.2 -0.7   2.7   0.8   2.8
Flames	     23.5  -0.6 -13.2	9.7  -6.8 -6.8	2.8 -10.8 -2.0   8.1  -1.3   4.8
Hurricanes   -3.2   7.7	  3.7	8.2  -0.9 -0.4	5.5   4.2  1.1  -2.0   6.6   5.7
Blackhawks   19.2  13.7	  6.8  39.7   1.2  2.3	3.7   7.2  2.4  -1.5   1.8   2.7
Avalanche   -26.1   5.5 -23.0 -43.6 -10.3 -0.7 -3.8 -14.8 -3.3  -3.7   3.8   3.2
Blue Jackets  9.6  17.3  -3.7  23.2 -20.0 -4.6 -3.1 -27.7  0.0   3.6  -0.8   2.8
Stars	      6.8  11.1	-25.6  -7.7 -12.5  4.1  1.7  -6.7 -5.5  -8.0   2.3 -11.2
Red Wings    31.9  15.2	-21.4  25.7  23.1  4.1  2.0  29.2 -1.5	-9.0   2.3  -8.2
Oilers	      4.2 -10.8	  9.3	2.7  -7.1  0.1  2.2  -4.8 -4.8 -11.9   0.5 -16.2
Panthers     10.5 -26.2	 31.9  16.2  -7.4 -1.9 -5.5 -14.8 -0.1   4.9   5.0   9.8
Kings	    -31.2  12.1	 -4.8 -23.9   0.8  0.3	3.2   4.3 -4.3	 6.4  -3.3  -1.2
Wild	    -23.5  -7.4	 13.6 -17.3   3.8  1.5 -2.1   3.2  2.3	19.1   8.3  29.7
Canadiens     0.4 -11.8	  4.2  -7.2   1.1 -2.4  5.5   4.2  1.5   5.1  -4.8   1.8
Predators   -13.6   4.7   1.0  -8.0 -10.3 -0.7 -3.8 -14.8  1.2	 5.1   0.5   6.8
Devils	      5.7   9.8	 14.9  30.3  -0.2  3.1 -5.6  -2.7  4.6	-3.6   2.8   3.8
Islanders   -29.1 -26.6	 -8.1 -63.7  -6.6  2.4 -3.5  -7.7  3.7	-4.6  -3.3  -4.2
Rangers	    -18.1  -1.4	  2.3 -17.2 -17.6 -6.0	0.8 -22.8  1.4	22.3   2.0  25.7
Senators    -22.0   9.6	 -5.8 -18.2   1.8  2.8 -0.3   4.3  0.0	 1.6  -0.8   0.8
Flyers	     12.5 -20.3	 12.6   4.8  11.1  6.3 -4.1  13.3  7.0	 7.5  -8.7   5.8
Coyotes	    -12.1  -8.3	 -7.1 -27.5 -15.0  3.9	0.3 -10.8 -1.7 -12.5   8.0  -6.2
Penguins     28.5  -0.8   1.6  29.3  -6.2 -4.7	3.2  -7.7 -1.0	 5.8  -1.0   3.8
Sharks	     -9.5  21.2	 -1.9	9.8  18.8 -2.7  3.2  19.3  5.0	 7.0   5.8  17.8
Blues	    -15.5   7.0	 -6.2 -14.7   5.5  0.1	1.7   7.3  1.8	 9.7  -2.7   8.8
Lightning   -17.5 -15.0	  5.8 -26.7  -4.0 -1.1	0.3  -4.8 -5.3 -12.3 -10.7 -28.3
Maple Leafs  13.9  -2.5	-38.8 -27.3  -0.5  0.6 -1.8  -1.7 -1.1 -19.6   5.5 -15.2
Canucks	      9.0   8.5	 12.1  29.5  -0.7  3.2	2.7   5.2 -1.5	 1.3  -5.0  -5.2
Capitals     15.9   6.3	 -1.5  20.7  21.1 -3.3 -0.6  17.2 -1.9  -1.7  -7.7 -11.3

I’d also like to update the playoff odds, a little feature that I’ll be maintaining until the end of the postseason.

Legend:

CSF: Odds of playing in the Conference Semi-Finals

CF: Odds of playing in the Conference Finals

FIN: Odds of playing in the Stanley Cup Finals

CUP: Odds of winning the Stanley Cup

		Odds at beginning of playoffs	    Odds on April 24th	

Team		CSF	CF	FIN	CUP	CSF	CF	FIN	CUP

Bruins		73.6	53.2	36.4	22.8	100.0	74.8	51.1	32.6
Red Wings	66.7	40.1	21.3	11.4	100.0	64.6	35.8	17.9
Canucks		60.2	28.5	13.3	 6.2	100.0	48.4	22.9	10.0
Blackhawks	66.2	36.7	20.1	10.8	 62.9	33.8	18.5	 9.3
Devils		56.6	29.5	12.9	 6.0	 77.5	40.8	16.3	 7.6
Penguins	47.0	21.6	 9.5	 4.1	 74.8	34.5	13.5	 5.8
Ducks		32.7	11.6	 4.8   	 1.8	 79.6	26.8	10.4	 3.6
Sharks		67.3	42.7	24.3	13.7	 20.4	11.8	 6.7	 3.6
Rangers		38.5	10.9	 4.3	 1.5	 82.4	19.8	 7.6	 2.6
Flyers		53.0	24.8	11.2	 5.0	 25.2	11.9	 4.8	 2.1
Flames		33.8	13.9	 5.7	 2.2	 37.1	14.6	 5.8	 2.1
Capitals	61.5	32.2	13.4	 5.9	 17.6	 8.9	 3.3	 1.5
Hurricanes	43.4	16.7	 7.2     2.9	 22.5	 9.4	 3.4 	 1.4
Blue Jackets	35.7	12.6	 4.8	 1.8	  0.0	 0.0	 0.0	 0.0
Canadiens	26.4	11.1	 5.0	 1.9	  0.0	 0.0	 0.0   	 0.0
Blues		37.4	13.9	 5.6	 2.1	  0.0	 0.0	 0.0	 0.0

Of the five weakest teams going into the playoffs, three have already been eliminated in 4 games (the Blue Jackets, Canadiens and Blues), while the two surprising ones, the Rangers and Ducks, have opened up 3-1 leads over their adversaries. The biggest drop in playoff odds goes to the Sharks, who were considered the second favorite going into the playoffs, after the Bruins. Now San Jose has only a 20% chance of winning even their first-round contest and only 3.6% odds of winning the Stanley Cup. I guess it won’t be San Jose’s year after all.

The team that has done the best out of the first round so far is the Bruins. Not only have they re-established themselves as a legitimate contender by thoroughly dominating the Canadiens (though it seems odd that the best team in the regular season would have to prove anything), but they are now likely to face the Rangers in the second round. New York, at least on paper, should be an easier matchup for Boston than the Penguins or Flyers would have been.

In an article earlier this week I spoke of the Canucks as a possible sleeper pick, but I don’t think they’re a sleeper any longer. The odds now rank them as the 3rd favorite to win the Cup! However, if you’re a betting man or woman, Bruins-Red Wings is still your choice for now.

Tom Awad is an author of Hockey Prospectus. You can contact Tom by clicking here or click here to see Tom's other articles.