January 3, 2011
Benchmarcs
Goalie Workloads and Playoff Performance

by Marc Foster

Displaying pretext

I love conventional wisdom, those rules of life that pundits spew and the public accepts at face value. Sometimes they are true, and sometimes they aren't, but most of them have never been tested for validity.

One of the things I started doing since I started writing for Hockey Prospectus was to increase my attention to the NHL. I haven't not been paying attention, but I've spent most of the last decade covering junior hockey. It also doesn't help that I live in one of those non-traditional markets that doesn't live and breathe hockey. But what does help is that there are dozens of sites out there to read, and similarly, lots of podcasts to download and listen to. Of course, the plethora of options means there are many opportunities to catch people saying things that are flat out wrong about the game, or at the very least, not verified.

With that in mind, I decided to follow up on something I've heard repeatedly from a former NHL coach and general manager who is now on the radio circuit…that unless you're Marty Brodeur, you're not going to do well in the playoffs if you've been in goal more than 70 games during the regular season. Now I'm paraphrasing here, but in my defense, the coach/GM in question changes the exact wording whenever he repeats it, specifically how many games, sometimes going as low as 60. It's easy to figure out where this wisdom is coming from, as there's a post-lockout trend for goalies with eight or more playoff wins (and thus making conference finals) in a season to have played fewer than 50 regular season games:

Playoffs 	8+ wins after < 50 GP	8+ wins after 60+ GP
2010			3*			1
2009			2			2*
2008			2*			2
2007			0			1
2006			3*			0
2005		     Lockout		     Lockout
2004			2			0
2003			0			3*
2002			0			2*
2001			1			2*
2000			1			3*
1999			0			4*
1998			0			4*

*Cup Winner

Note the number of 60+ goalies making the conference finals. Of the 24 listed here, only three were named Martin Brodeur, so he's clearly not the unique playoff workhorse our coach/GM is making him out to be.