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2013 NHL Entry Draft - Top draft prospects list and analysis

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January 29, 2011
Howe and Why
Lidstrom Destroys Staal

by Robert Vollman

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The first ever NHL All-Star Draft took place this past Friday, where team captains Nicklas Lidstrom and Eric Staal drafted from amongst the players chosen for this year's All-Star Game. If upon reviewing the results you thought that Lidstrom secured a huge edge for his team, then according to GVT you'd be right.

Goaltending

Though Staal secured his goaltending first, he certainly didn't get the better end of it. Somehow he didn't wind up with a single netminder that is performing as well as Lidstrom's worst, Marc-Andre Fleury.

Name                GVT
Henrik Lundqvist    17.6
Carey Price         17.2
Cam Ward            14.1
Team Staal Total    48.9

Name                GVT
Tim Thomas          34.7
Jonas Hiller        22.7
Marc-Andre Fleury   17.9
Team Lidstrom Total 75.3

In fact, even selecting a trio from those that weren't selected for the All-Star Game would give you something superior to Team Staal:

Name                GVT
Ondrej Pavelec      18.7
Pekka Rinne         18.1
Roberto Luongo      17.3
Team Leftover Total 54.1

Tim Thomas and Jonas Hiller are the only two goalies playing significantly better than the pack this year, and Team Lidstrom secured them both.

Defense

It's understandable that an elite blueliner like Nicklas Lidstrom would get an edge on defense, even if for no other reason than he's on it. The veteran Swede is turning 41 in April and yet he's a legitimate possibility to earn his seventh Norris Trophy as league's best defenseman.

Even when you take Lidstrom out the equation, Team Staal still comes up short. Give them credit for bagging Kris Letang (though late in the draft), the most successful defenseman thus far, but after that they got hosed.

Name                OGVT DGVT
Kris Letang          7.8  5.3
Zdeno Chara          4.1  3.4
Dan Boyle            3.7  3.7
Mike Green           3.3  3.6
Erik Karlsson        5.2  1.5
Marc Staal           1.8  4.3
Team Staal Total    25.9 21.8

Name                OGVT DGVT
Keith Yandle         8.4  2.2
Nicklas Lidstrom     8.6  1.9
Dustin Byfuglien     9.1  2.9
Brent Burns          6.6  2.2
Shea Weber           4.7  3.4
Duncan Keith         3.4  2.7
Team Lidstrom Total 40.8 15.3

Team Staal is tighter in their own end, but Team Lidstrom loaded up offensively. Once again, it is possible to draft a blue line among those not chosen for the All-Star Game that is superior to Team Staal, and this time it's even a match for Team Lidstrom.

Name                OGVT DGVT
Lubomir Visnovsky    7.6  3.5
Tobias Enstrom       7.5  2.8
Brian Rafalski       6.0  3.2
John-Michael Liles   6.8  2.4
Alex Goligoski       4.3  4.3
Drew Doughty         3.1  5.3
Team Leftover Total 35.3 21.5

Forwards

Up front, the two teams are much more competitive, but Team Lidstrom still secured a slight advantage.

Name                 OGVT DGVT
Daniel Sedin         13.8  2.6
Ryan Kesler           9.2  3.4
Claude Giroux         9.5  1.7
Alex Ovechkin         8.3  2.6
Patrick Sharp         9.1  1.1
Corey Perry           7.9  1.9
Eric Staal            8.6  0.6
Rick Nash             6.7  1.9
Jeff Skinner          7.1  1.2
David Backes          4.6  3.7
Paul Stastny          6.6  1.1
Patrik Elias          4.4  3.2
Team Staal Total     95.8 25.0

Name                 OGVT DGVT
Steven Stamkos       15.2  3.1
Martin St. Louis     10.7  2.7
Brad Richards        10.2  2.1
Henrik Sedin          9.9  2.4
Anze Kopitar          7.7  3.9
Loui Eriksson         8.6  2.7
Danny Briere          9.3  1.5
Matt Duchene          7.7  1.3
Jonathan Toews        6.4  2.5
Martin Havlat         6.7  1.6
Patrick Kane          5.9  0.9
Phil Kessel           4.6  0.7
Team Lidstrom Total 102.9 25.4

Team Staal has an almost imperceptible advantage defensively, thanks largely to Ryan Kesler, but Team Lidstrom has more firepower. Team Staal got Ovechkin, Team Lidstrom got Stamkos, and the Sedins were split. The difference-makers for Team Lidstrom could be Brad Richards and Martin St. Louis, especially if they're teamed up with Stamkos.

Given how much better people are at identifying offensive performance than defensive, and therefore at identifying the more productive forwards, it stands to reason that it would be much more difficult to build a set of competitive forwards from the castaways.

Name                 OGVT DGVT
Jeff Carter           9.3  1.8
Mike Richards         8.8  2.3
Henrik Zetterberg     9.2  1.7
Logan Couture         6.7  2.8
Nicklas Backstrom     6.1  3.3
Tomas Plekanec        6.1  3.1
Teemu Selanne         8.1  1.1
Justin Williams       6.0  3.0
Patrice Bergeron      6.2  2.6
Pavel Datsyuk         7.2  1.5
James Neal            6.4  2.3
Ryane Clowe           6.4  2.2
Team Leftover Total  86.5 27.7

Final Verdict

According to GVT, Team Lidstrom has a 42 goal edge over Team Staal, split roughly evenly between offense and combined defense and goaltending. In fact, even a team crafted from leftover players bests Team Staal at both ends of the ice.

Team          Nets DefO DefD  ForO ForD  TotO  TotD TOTAL
Team Lidstrom 75.3 40.8 15.3 102.9 25.4 143.7 116.0 259.7
Team Staal    48.9 25.9 21.8  95.8 25.0 121.7  95.7 217.4
Team Leftover 54.1 35.3 21.5  86.5 27.7 121.8 103.3 225.1

In a single game, and especially in a light-hearted All-Star Game, anything can happen, but on paper it looks like Team Lidstrom selected this year's more productive talent.

Robert Vollman is an author of Hockey Prospectus. You can contact Robert by clicking here or click here to see Robert's other articles.

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<< Previous Article
Premium Article From Daigle To Datsyuk (01/28)
<< Previous Column
Howe and Why (01/28)
Next Column >>
Howe and Why (01/31)
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Premium Article Shots On Goal (01/30)

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