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With all due respect to some of the interesting storylines for the Eastern Conference stretch drive this season—will the Leafs/Devils complete improbable/wildly improbable comebacks, will Buffalo have enough juice to unseat the Rangers or Hurricanes, how far can Atlanta fall—the real story this spring is in the West. As I write this on Saturday evening, the gap between fourth and 11th in that conference is just four points—the same gap that exists between seventh and ninth in the East. If the playoffs started today, three Western Conference teams finishing below the cutoff line would have more points than the seventh-place team in the East. 12th-place Columbus, a team that probably blew their playoff chances with consecutive losses to the sad sack Oilers and the surging Flames, doesn't even get serious consideration in this article, but in the East they would be in the thick of things, a single win away from a playoff spot with two games in hand on Carolina.
Of those eight Western teams vying for five spots, which will make the postseason cut? Who poses the most formidable threat to the higher seeds? That is what we will examine here.
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Chicago Blackhawks
On Pace For: 98 points
Current Position: 4th, 78 points
Goal Differential: +34
Chicago is as close to a sure thing as there is on this list. Leaving aside the fact that they won the Stanley Cup last season, the fact is that their goal differential shows them to be a top team. They're outscoring their opposition by roughly one half-goal per game, but haven't been able to turn that awesome goal differential into standings points thanks to an awful record in one-goal games—the 'Hawks win 65% of games where the difference is more than one goal, but just 43% of games where one goal separates the two teams. I know some will be tempted to ascribe that to a lack of "clutch" play, but history shows us that a team's record in one-goal games is essentially random: for example, this year's best one-goal game team is Tampa Bay (they were 26th last season) while this year's worst team in that department is Ottawa (they were 3rd last season). Chicago is better than their record.
Bottom Line: Playoff team (High confidence)
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Los Angeles Kings
On Pace For: 96 points
Current Position: 6th, 76 points
Goal Differential: +21
Los Angeles is the other goal-differential darling of this group, although not nearly to the degree that Chicago is. They're a very strong five-on-five team, and also boast a strong penalty kill, although their middling power play has to be considered disappointing given the talent on the roster. Their trade of futures for Dustin Penner at the deadline strengthens a forward corps that already includes a wealth of competent two-way players, while Drew Doughty is a franchise defenseman at the head of a strong group. I don't think they're far behind Chicago as the class of the bubble teams.
Bottom Line: Playoff team (High confidence)
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Anaheim Ducks
On Pace For: 95 points
Current Position: 9th, 75 points
Goal Differential: -8
The Anaheim Ducks have snuck around miserable five-on-five play (26th in goals for/goals against ratio), lousy penalty killing (80.7% efficient, 23rd in the NHL) and getting outshot every night (by an average of 4.4 per game) by having a very strong power play (22.4% efficient, 3rd in the NHL), holding the NHL's second-best record in one-goal games (22-8-5, including a 10-5 record in OT/SO play) and letting Jonas Hiller (.925 save percentage) compensate for a mediocre defense corps. They may make it into the postseason, but they're certainly one of the poorer teams in this group.
Bottom line: Out of the playoffs (Probably)
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Nashville Predators
On Pace For: 95 points
Current Position: 10th, 75 points
Goal Differential: +10
I'm a bit of a sucker for a good even-strength team, and the Nashville Predators are one. Not only do they boast one of the best goals for to goals against ratios in the league at five-on-five (1.10, ninth in the NHL), but they're also third in the league in goals against (2.29 per game) and fourth in penalty killing (85.6%). On the other side of the scale, their power play is miserable and their offensive capability is perhaps best described as "pop gun".
Bottom line: Playoff team (Probably)
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Calgary Flames
On Pace For: 94 points
Current Position: 5th, 77 points
Goal Differential: +13
Calgary has done a lot of things right this season on the ice, and are above league-average in every situation: at even strength, on the man advantage, and while shorthanded. Unfortunately, "above league average" may not be synonymous with "playoff team". As was noted in the introduction, the average Western Conference team is significantly better than the average team in the East. If Miikka Kiprusoff can sustain his impressive performance of late (.923 save percentage over his last 20 games after .901 save percentage over his first 38 games), then this team could surprise.
Bottom line: Playoff team (Probably)
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Phoenix Coyotes
On Pace For: 94 points
Current Position: 7th, 76 points
Goal Differential: -4
If the Coyotes had been able to duplicate their phenomenal post-regulation time record from last season (they went 19-7 last year vs. 5-10 so far this season), then we wouldn't be talking about them as a bubble team. They're a fairly good even strength team that falls apart on special teams (22nd-ranked power play, 27th-ranked penalty kill). They also get exceptional goaltending from Ilya Bryzgalov (.918 save percentage).
Bottom line: Playoff team (Barely)
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Dallas Stars
On Pace For: 93 points
Current Position: 8th, 75 points
Goal Differential: -4
Oh Dallas, kings of the percentage bubble. On December 28th, the Stars sat second in the West, and statistician extraordinaire Gabriel Desjardins put up a poll in which he suggested that the Stars could be outperformed by the then-last place New Jersey Devils over the remaining games of the season. Since then, the Devils have posted 42 points to the Stars' 29, and Dallas has fallen to the very tip of the playoff bubble. Dallas is a terrible team, outshot by 4.2 shots per game, and it's likely that they'll either keep falling or be one of the most favorable first round matchups in the West.
Bottom line: Out of the playoffs (Probably)
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Minnesota Wild
On Pace For: 93 points
Current Position: 11th, 74 points
Goal Differential: -2
The Wild, already outshot by horrific margins (presently on the wrong side of a 6.1 shots per game differential), got worse when Mikko Koivu went down to injury. They've got decent special teams and a phenomenal goaltender, but bad teams don't generally make the playoffs and that's particularly true when they're without their best center.
Bottom line: Out of the playoffs (Some confidence)
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In summary: Chicago and Los Angeles are the best of the bubble teams, Nashville and Calgary are both quite good, and I see Phoenix beating out both Anaheim and Dallas for the final playoff spot, with Minnesota bringing up the rear.
Jonathan Willis is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Jonathan by clicking here or click here to see Jonathan's other articles.
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Front Office Focus (03/04)
1 comment has been left for this article. 
Maybe I just picked a really bad game to see them, but I'm not so sure about the Kings. I like the goal differential and I like the names I see on the roster sheet, but not necessarily what's on the ice. Plus--this bothered me--they had nothing constructive to say regarding improving their power play--it's like they have no clue even what to work on. I'd pick them for a first round exit for sure if they make it.