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Our Latest Blog Entries 06-15 2010-11 Puck Prospectus Annual by Andr... 06-11 Hall of Fame Induction Predictions, 20... 05-28 Niemi's Finnish track record by Timo S...

June 15, 2010, 01:20 PM ET
2010-11 Puck Prospectus Annual

by Andrew Rothstein

What a season it’s been and congratulations to the Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks.

With the NHL season at an end, it’s now time for us to turn our attention towards the offseason. To kick things off, we’re working on a series with ESPN called Plugging Holes, which began yesterday and can be found here.

Also this summer, we will be taking time to work on the very first Puck Prospectus Annual, which should be available starting the first week of September. Included will be VUKOTA team and player projections, player profiles, essays on shot quality, corsi and fenwick, league equivalencies, the top prospects in hockey, plus an argument for a balanced schedule as well as the history of statistical analysis in hockey. For those of you who love the injury insight you get from a Baseball Prospectus annual or the Football Outsiders Almanac, you will be happy to know that Will Carroll will be contributing to this project and will be writing about upper body and lower body injuries for us.

Enjoy the offseason and keep checking Puck Prospectus for up to date content on hockey throughout the summer.

June 11, 2010, 02:44 PM ET
Hall of Fame Induction Predictions, 2010-2012

by Iain Fyffe

On June 22, the Hockey Hall of Fame will announce its induction class for 2010. There are a number of quality players in their first year of eligibility, and a few holdovers that deserve consideration. Now that last year’s ridiculous class (Yzerman, Hull, Robitaille, Leetch) has cleared the boards a bit, we’ll see some less-sure-fire candidates this year.

I’m putting the finishing touches on the Inductinator, a system to predict who will be inducted into the Hall of Fame based on the standards of recent players who have been inducted. It’s not necessarily about who should be in, but who will be, based on implicit standards developed from how the selection committee inducts players. A series of articles is upcoming to detail the Inductinator, but for now we can use it to make some predictions; I wanted to get something out before this year’s class is announced. All of the following players meet the implicit standards used in the system.

• Class of 2010: Alexander Mogilny, John LeClair, Joe Nieuwendyk, Pierre Turgeon

• Class of 2011: Ed Belfour, Eric Lindros, Dave Andreychuk

• Class of 2012: Joe Sakic, Brendan Shanahan, Mats Sundin, Jeremy Roenick

Note that Lindros and Andreychuk are both eligible in 2010, but are the fifth- and sixth-most qualified players according to the system. One or both of them might go in this year, in which case the players they replace get shifted to 2011.
If the fourth available spot is to be filled in 2011 (and it doesn’t have to be), the most likely candidates are Adam Oates and Pavel Bure, both of whom miss the Hall of Fame standards by the slimmest of margins, according to the Inductinator. A wildcard is Sergei Makarov, who the Inductinator is not calibrated to evaluate, since he played most of his good years in Europe. The system is designed to examine current players, and Makarov was among the last of a type of player who doesn’t really exist any more: superstar players who play their prime in Europe and their declining years in the NHL. These days it’s the other way around.

May 28, 2010, 10:19 PM ET
Niemi’s Finnish track record

by Timo Seppa

In today’s Finals’ preview, I mentioned some promising stats for Philadelphia’s Michael Leighton in his last AHL campaign of 2007-8. But Leighton wasn’t the only goalie showing promise that season. Chicago goaltender Antti Niemi showed signs of potentially becoming a very good netminder in 2007-8 as well. In his age 24 season with the Lahti Pelicans of the Finnish Elite League, Niemi was 26-14-6 with a 2.35 GAA.

In addition to running his Goals Versus Threshold stat for the NHL, Tom Awad also runs it for leagues like the Finnish Elite League. Is it any surprise that Niemi’s 2007-8 season ranked 4th in the league, at a +30.4 GVT rating? (At age 23, he was a respectable +11.0 GVT, for 65th in the league.) That kind of performance clearly counts for something.

Fast forward to North America. While sporting an average .912 save percentage in 39 games with the Blackhawks this season, Niemi impressively had 7 shutouts - Steve Mason-like territory (Steve Mason from 2008-9, that is). With positive signs like the fine 2007-8 Finnish league season and the high percentage of shutouts (7 in 39 games) this season, it’s not surprising to see Antti Niemi coming up big this postseason, with a 12-4 record, .921 save percentage and 2 shutouts. And maybe a championship, to top it off.

May 18, 2010, 10:54 AM ET
The Flyers’ other achievement

by Timo Seppa

Everyone’s impressed–rightly so–with the Philadelphia Flyers dual 3-0 comebacks - both from a 3-0 series deficit against the Bruins and from a 3-0 deficit in the deciding Game 7. That we all know.

How’s this for another nice streak the Broad Street Bullies are on? - Between scoring the last 4 GF against Boston in Game 7 and all 6 GF against Montreal in Game 1, Philadelphia has scored 10 GF in a row without giving up any GA. And counting. Pretty sweet.

Such streaks are fairly rare, occurring a few times per typical season: According to Gabriel Desjardins, there have been only 29 other streaks of 10+ GF with 0 GA since the Lockout. And better than 10 GF? Only nine occurrences - three streaks of 11 GF (2007-8 Panthers, 2006-7 Canucks, 2008-9 Blackhawks), three streaks of 12 GF (2008-9 Sabres, 2005-6 Red Wings, 2005-6 Senators), three streaks of 14 GF (2005-6 Sabres, 2006-7 Senators, 2005-6 Thrashers).

For whatever reason, the Flyers’ feat was only matched one other time in 2009-10…

…and as you may have guessed, it was by the Montreal Canadiens. Over the course of three games in late January (3-1 against New Jersey, 6-0 against the New York Rangers and 1-2 against Florida), les Habitants scored 10 goals in a row without giving one up to the competition.

What’s the streak mean? That you’re good? That you’re lucky? Both, course.

It will be interesting to see if Philadelphia can extend this streak, but even more interesting to see if Montreal remains as resilient as they’ve been to playoff drubbings in general and poor Game 1’s in specific. 

Thanks to Puck Prospectus contributor Gabriel Desjardins of Behind the Net for his assistance.

May 8, 2010, 09:02 PM ET
All-time GVT now available

by Thomas Awad

There is possibly no question we get more often at PuckProspectus than “where can I get GVT for all NHL players?”. Now your requests have been answered. You can now find, at the PuckProspectus Google Docs site (link at bottom), GVT data for every NHL player.

 Ever.

That’s right, GVT for every player, every season, since 1944 is now available. For now, the file is only available as a download. If there is a different way you feel the data could be organized better, feel free to drop me a line.

The data is here, in the GVT folder:

http://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B8D4onnbcAAUNDJjNmRkNjMtNzEyYi00YmY2LTg4YjUtZGZiOTNhNmUwMzcz&hl=en

May 1, 2010, 12:21 PM ET
Hockey chat transcript

by Timo Seppa

What happened to the powerhouse Washington Capitals? Who’s going to advance out of the wild, wild Western Conference? Could it be a Penguins-Red Wings rematch…again? Why do I like the Habs so much?

Chat transcript from May 3, 2010 is available here

Also: You can also listen to my take on the postseason on Tuesdays at 5:05 pm on the John DiTullio Show on 1280 WHTK in Rochester and Saturday, May 8 at 10:25 am on the Blue Line Show with Matthew Coller on ESPN 950 in Rochester. Podcasts are available on both sites of my previous shows.

You can also get my postseason insights @timoseppa on Twitter.

April 26, 2010, 12:23 PM ET
Jacques Lemaire retires

by Timo Seppa

In the wake of the second seeded Devils’ playoff ouster by the rival Philadelphia Flyers, word came down the Jersey Turnpike earlier today that Jacques Lemaire had retired - Perhaps expected, given the cryptic statements regarding the veteran coach’s future recently made by general manager Lou Lamoriello. Lemaire is remaining in the New Jersey organization–in an unnamed capacity–while speculation now begins over who the Devils’ next head coach will be. Former Jersey greats like John MacLean and Scott Stevens are being bandied about as possibilities, but it stands to reason that Lamoriello may want more experience than that behind his bench next season.

While New Jersey got a particularly poor postseason draw in Philadelphia–a team that had beaten them in 5 of 6 contests during the season–the recent track records of both Lamoriello and Lemaire have been brought into question with this latest loss. Lemaire’s teams have disappointed over the last six seasons in Minnesota and New Jersey, missing the playoffs on three occassions while suffering first round defeats on three occassions. Lamoriello and the Devils–with a better pedigree than the Wild–have not done much better since the Lockout, losing twice in the second round (2005-6, 2006-7), followed by losing three times in the first round (2007-8, 2008-9, 2009-10) - all while finishing 1st (4 times) or 2nd (1 time) in their division during the regular season. The book may now have closed on Lemaire’s coaching career, but the question becomes whether Lamoriello needs to reinvent himself as general manager under the paradigm of the “new NHL”.

Regardless, Jacques Lemaire has had an illustrious career. As a player, he was a Stanley Cup winner in 8 of his 12 seasons, a staggering achievement. Lemaire scored 366 G, 469 A, 835 P, with an amazing +349 plus-minus. By Goals Versus Threshold, the 1984 Hall of Fame inductee was worth 191.8 goals for his teams (144.1 offensive GVT, 47.7 defensive GVT). As a head coach, Lemaire was the 1994 Jack Adams Trophy winner with New Jersey, before leading the Devils to their first Stanley Cup win in 1995 - When he and his Devils brought the neutral zone trap to the NHL with a vengeance. Lemaire was the first head coach of the expansion Minnesota Wild as well, winning the Jack Adams for a second time in 2003, a season when they fell one series short of the Stanley Cup Finals in only their third season in existence. With exceptional achievements as both a player and a coach, Jacques Lemaire might well be considered the Joe Torre of hockey, arguably worthy of HOF credentials as either a player or a coach. Few men can boast accomplishments of that level in both arenas.

Early this season, Lemaire was the consensus pick of the Puck Prospectus staff as the best coach.

April 19, 2010, 05:53 PM ET
Puck Prospectus Survey

by Andrew Rothstein

With the NHL regular season finished, we’re starting to think about the future. In order to make Puck Prospectus the best site it can be in 2010-11, please help us by filling out this brief 7-question survey about the site. Your responses to the survey are greatly appreciated and will help in further improving our site in years to come.

As always, thanks for reading.

April 2, 2010, 12:36 AM ET
Flyers’ Post Script

by Timo Seppa

In tonight’s 6-4 loss to the Islanders, what should have been a desperate and motivated Flyers’ team got outworked and soundly beaten by New York – Don’t be fooled by the late third period window-dressing on what should have gone down as a 6-2 loss. Yes, Brian Boucher had a forgettable night, but as was chronicled in my column this week, Philadelphia’s bigger worry may be with their offense. After the game, I got a chance to ask a thoughtful Daniel Briere about the Flyers’ inconsistencies in scoring:

Q: Sometimes the Flyers look like such a strong scoring team for a couple of weeks at a time, and then you can have trouble for several weeks at a time. Can you put your finger on what it is that’s going right when you’re clicking on offense?

A: I wish I knew. If we all knew, it would be a lot easier for everybody and we’d be able to score five or six goals every night. I don’t think tonight was an issue of not scoring. We scored our goals, but we just didn’t play well defensively and we gave up too much - especially in the first period. And you have to understand: at this stage of the year, you’re not going to win too many games like the Islanders did tonight, 6-4 . If you can score two or three goals, you have to be able to hold your opponent down to one or two goals. We’ve done a better job of that, but it’s been up and down. I think every team feels that, at times, they have trouble scoring, here and there. It’s just the way it is.

Q: How about power play opportunities and power play efficiency? It’s been a while since the Flyers have had two power play goals in a game [Actually, March 9^th, against the Islanders]. Obviously, that doesn’t happen all the time, but it’s been 3-4 weeks since you’ve scored multiple power play goals in a game.

A: It’s been a while since we’ve had two power plays in a game. I mean, we had two opportunities tonight. We haven’t had a lot of opportunities. You know, with the team we have, we have to be careful. We can’t take too many penalties because we’re not getting too many chances on our own power play. But as we get closer, that’s the way the playoffs are played. There’s a lot more leeway for everybody. So hopefully, we can score on that one or two opportunities we get every night.

So are Philly’s power play deficiencies the difference between the Hot and Cold Flyers’ offense?

Partially - but there are problems at even strength during these droughts as well. What’s particularly bad for Philadelphia right now is a season-low level of power play opportunities, down almost an opportunity per game (3.2 PPO per game, from 3/7-3/28) from their season average (4.0 PPO per game). From what Danny Briere said, it seems that the Flyers themselves are aware of the issue.

Generally, effort brings those opportunities. Philadelphia needs to bring that effort, if they want to hold onto a postseason berth.

March 29, 2010, 12:45 PM ET
Chalk one up for VUKOTA?

by Thomas Awad

The always enjoyable Puck Daddy at Yahoo has baptized the Calgary Flames as the NHL’s most disappointing team:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/blog/puck_daddy/post/What-We-Learned-The-NHL-s-most-disappointing-te;_ylt=AlEwHe8_9t3D.4vGMgURwz97vLYF?urn=nhl,230782

What’s interesting is that the Flames are currently 14th in the NHL. PuckProspectus’ VUKOTA had them tagged at 15th. So the Flames are actually performing exactly as well as expected. Which still doesn’t explain the Vesa Toskala trade.

If you ask me, the most disappointing team of 2009-10 is the Boston Bruins. Despite Tim Thomas’ letdown, the goaltending has been almost as good as last year thanks to Tukka Rask. On the flip side, the Bruins went from 2nd in the NHL in goals for to 30th, which is all you need to know about their season. This has occurred because they went from 1st to last in team shooting percentage. Many bloggers, especially Gabriel Desjardins at behindthenethockey.com, have explained how shooting percentage is highly mean-reverting, and the Bruins have learned this to their expense.

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