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We're into the last two weeks of the regular season. Teams like Winnipeg, Calgary, and Colorado have dropped off the bubble, but the last few postseason berths are still up for grabs between the remaining contenders. So it's time for one final in-season look at Team Power Rankings. Hopefully, we'll get some insights on which teams hold a slight advantage towards getting into the dance, and also how they might fare going once they get there.
As usual, we'll start with an updated look at the components of GVT for each team. These stats, as well as our current Player Power Rankings and the GVTs you'll find on the Stats tab are for games through last weekend (March 25). Sorry for the delay.
Teams by Goals Versus Threshold - April 2012
Team GP Pts GF GA Win% OGVT DGVT GGVT GVT
Boston Bruins 74 89 241 182 0.537 36.9 2.9 12.2 59
Pittsburgh Penguins 74 98 248 193 0.591 42.9 12.6 -8.4 55
Detroit Red Wings 75 95 230 185 0.565 24.2 17.5 -2.0 45
St. Louis Blues 75 101 192 147 0.601 -10.8 30.6 28.0 45
Vancouver Canucks 75 99 229 187 0.589 23.2 -2.5 18.2 42
New York Rangers 75 101 206 168 0.601 2.2 18.0 18.5 38
Philadelphia Flyers 75 96 238 208 0.571 35.2 1.7 -6.9 30
Chicago Blackhawks 75 92 229 214 0.547 25.2 2.2 -18.2 15
Nashville Predators 75 94 213 198 0.559 10.2 -2.3 7.9 15
Los Angeles Kings 75 86 175 164 0.512 -29.8 17.1 20.0 11
San Jose Sharks 75 86 205 195 0.512 -1.8 10.1 -3.4 10
New Jersey Devils 75 90 204 195 0.535 -5.8 16.5 -7.1 9
Ottawa Senators 76 86 230 223 0.505 24.6 -17.8 -4.7 7
Phoenix Coyotes 76 87 200 198 0.511 -6.4 -3.0 14.3 2
Dallas Stars 75 87 198 198 0.517 -7.8 -4.7 9.3 0
Colorado Avalanche 77 86 200 202 0.498 -13.1 2.5 4.9 -2
Buffalo Sabres 76 84 197 209 0.493 -11.4 -6.5 5.6 -12
Washington Capitals 75 82 202 214 0.488 1.2 -4.8 -6.6 -12
Montreal Canadiens 76 71 197 211 0.417 -9.4 -1.4 3.3 -14
Winnipeg Jets 75 78 201 217 0.464 -1.8 -5.5 -9.0 -16
Florida Panthers 74 86 184 203 0.518 -17.1 -2.6 3.7 -19
Anaheim Ducks 75 75 189 209 0.446 -12.8 1.5 -4.1 -20
Edmonton Oilers 75 69 200 220 0.41 -3.8 -7.8 -2.0 -20
Calgary Flames 76 83 186 208 0.487 -18.4 -4.4 7.5 -22
Toronto Maple Leafs 76 75 217 239 0.44 11.6 -11.9 -21.0 -22
Carolina Hurricanes 76 75 202 228 0.44 0.6 -17.1 -3.8 -26
Tampa Bay Lightning 74 75 209 252 0.452 9.9 -15.7 -34.5 -43
Minnesota Wild 74 72 159 204 0.434 -45.1 -9.8 11.7 -45
New York Islanders 74 71 177 222 0.428 -25.1 -3.2 -13.3 -45
Columbus Blue Jackets 74 55 172 237 0.332 -28.1 -12.4 -19.9 -65
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
GGVT: Goaltending GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
Stats as of March 25
What's not shown above—why the offensive, defensive, goaltending, and shootout components of GVT don't quite add up to the total—is a factor dealing with empty net goals against.
Team Power Rankings
As of Sunday, teams had played between 74 and 77 games. With 75 games played on average, the season was 92% complete. It should be no surprise to anyone that the big crash this month was from the Toronto Maple Leafs, an early season "surprise". Teams like Florida remain fairly low in our standings—if the season was replayed, we're not so sure that they'd be a playoff team.
And we have a new number one. Going into the playoffs, the team to beat is…
1. Pittsburgh Penguins, 98 points (.591)
March ranking: 4; Change: +3
Current GVT: 55 (2nd); VUKOTA GVT: 16 (8th)
The Penguins haven't just been winning, they've been demolishing their competition. They've had four eight-goal efforts this season, and are averaging an outrageous 4.14 GF per game since February 11.
2. Boston Bruins, 89 points (.537)
March ranking: 2; Change: 0
Current GVT: 59 (1st); VUKOTA GVT: 17 (6th)
Boston seems to have righted their ship, winning five of their last six after dropping four in a row and 14 of their previous 22.
3. Detroit Red Wings, 95 points (.565)
March ranking: 1; Change: -2
Current GVT: 45 (3rd); VUKOTA GVT: 11 (9th)
Tough question: might teams actually want to face the Red Wings in the playoffs, given the fact that they've only won three of their past 12 contests? Much of it depends on the health of key players like Lidstrom (10.0 GVT) and Howard (17.5 GVT).
4. St. Louis Blues, 101 points (.601)
March ranking: 6; Change: +2
Current GVT: 45 (3rd); VUKOTA GVT: 8 (11th)
Brian Elliott and Jaroslav Halak are fourth and 11th among goaltenders in GVT, at 24.5 and 20.3 GVT. Come playoff time, will it still be a time-share in goal?
5. Vancouver Canucks, 99 points (.589)
March ranking: 3; Change: -2
Current GVT: 42 (5th); VUKOTA GVT: 19 (5th)
The Canucks are another squad with essentially two number one netminders, Cory Schneider (18.5 GVT) and Roberto Luongo (9.4 GVT). And for a change, goaltending's not the big question going into the playoffs. Unfortunately, the health of superstar forward Daniel Sedin (15.0 GVT) is.
6. New York Rangers, 101 points (.601)
March ranking: 5; Change: -1
Current GVT: 38 (6th); VUKOTA GVT: 20 (4th)
Among the top eight squads in team GVT, the Rangers have the smallest contribution from their skaters (20.2 GVT). Although this incarnation of the Blueshirts is considerably improved, much still falls on the shoulders of Henrik Lundqvist (33.4 GVT). Unfortunately, Lundqvist has not fared as well in the playoffs (.909) as in the regular season (.920).
7. Philadelphia Flyers, 96 points (.571)
March ranking: 7; Change: 0
Current GVT: 30 (7th); VUKOTA GVT: 8 (11th)
Ilya Bryzgalov's scorching run of games has taken him all the way from third-worst overall in GVT to middle of the pack (360th), at 3.5. But we'll see if he can bounce back to 100% from a heel injury.
8. Chicago Blackhawks, 92 points (.547)
March ranking: 10; Change: +2
Current GVT: 15 (t-8th); VUKOTA GVT: 22 (3rd)
Chicago has fared remarkably well in the absence of captain Jonathan Toews (16.2 GVT in 59 GP), in part due to a fantastic season from veteran Marian Hossa (20.0 GVT).
9. Nashville Predators, 94 points (.559)
March ranking: 9; Change: 0
Current GVT: 15 (t-8th); VUKOTA GVT: -2 (16th)
With all of the attention on the return to the NHL of Alexander Radulov, we wonder about Pekka Rinne's workload flying under the radar. He's already faced 2046 shots, tops in the league. Could be a factor.
10. San Jose Sharks, 86 points (.512)
March ranking: 8; Change: -2
Current GVT: 10 (11th); VUKOTA GVT: 17 (6th)
Though it certainly seems the Sharks have been making some poor plays on D over this poor stretch of games, GVT says it's the only above-average portion of San Jose's game, with their offense (surprisingly) and their goaltending (not so surprisingly) slightly below league standards. Regardless of how this season (and postseason?) plays out, there are major questions for the management of an aging though talented team to answer about how to add quality youth to the mix.
11. New Jersey Devils, 90 points (.535)
March ranking: 11; Change: 0
Current GVT: 9 (12th); VUKOTA GVT: -11 (22nd)
Martin Brodeur's fine play has him up all the way up to a .905 save percentage and -0.8 GVT. He's not climbing the all-time GVT list at this rate, though.
12. Ottawa Senators, 86 points (.505)
March ranking: 12; Change: 0
Current GVT: 7 (13th); VUKOTA GVT: -27 (28th)
Ottawa's going to need to outscore their competition in the playoffs. They rank fifth in offense at 3.00 GF per game but fifth-worst in defense/goaltending at 2.90 GA per game.
13. Los Angeles Kings, 86 points (.512)
March ranking: 15; Change: +2
Current GVT: 11 (10th); VUKOTA GVT: 9 (10th)
Have the Kings been turned around by the Jeff Carter trade, or was it that a talented team couldn't possibly be as bad on offense as they'd looked to that point? Still a pretty awful 2.23 GF per game, at least Minnesota's (much) worse than they are.
14. Phoenix Coyotes, 87 points (.511)
March ranking: 13; Change: -1
Current GVT: 2 (14th); VUKOTA GVT: -22 (27th)
At least for one season, Mike Smith (21.8 GVT) has lived up to his promise. He ranks fifth among goaltenders and eighth overall. But it might not be enough to get the Coyotes into the playoffs.
15. Dallas Stars, 87 points (.517)
March ranking: 17; Change: +2
Current GVT: 0 (15th); VUKOTA GVT: -12 (23th)
Since we've harped on it for two months, we should let you know that Brad Richards is looking better by the numbers for the Rangers. Now, only five Stars exceed his 8.0 GVT: Kari Lehtonen, Loui Eriksson, Jamie Benn, Michael Ryder, and Mike Ribeiro. Still, it's a good lesson regarding the aging of star players.
16. Colorado Avalanche, 86 points (.498)
March ranking: 19; Change: +3
Current GVT: -2 (16th); VUKOTA GVT: -19 (25th)
Gabriel Landeskog's 12.5 GVT leads all Avalanche players and is 64th overall.
17. Washington Capitals, 82 points (.488)
March ranking: 16; Change: -1
Current GVT: -12 (t-17th); VUKOTA GVT: 42 (1st)
Alex Ovechkin's on fire…bringing him all the way up to 74th overall, with 11.8 GVT. VUKOTA's number one preseason pick is in danger of missing the playoffs, contending with a red-hot Buffalo for the eighth seed. Offseason responses have been measured in the nation's capital over the past few summers—you wonder if that could change.
18. Montreal Canadiens, 71 points (.417)
March ranking: 18; Change: 0
Current GVT: -14 (19th); VUKOTA GVT: -8 (19th)
A dismal campaign, with Pierre Gauthier shown the door today.
19. Buffalo Sabres, 84 points (.493)
March ranking: 22; Change: +3
Current GVT: -12 (t-17th); VUKOTA GVT: 26 (2nd)
Amazingly, the Sabres have fought all the back from last place to eighth. Ryan Miller's put together a solid 11.5 GVT season with a strong second half, but captain Jason Pominville's been their MVP at 14.4.
20. Winnipeg Jets, 78 points (.464)
March ranking: 20; Change: 0
Current GVT: -16 (20th); VUKOTA GVT: -18 (24th)
Once the Thrashers, always the Thrashers? In fairness, they legitimately stayed in the playoff race longer this season.
21. Toronto Maple Leafs, 75 points (.440)
March ranking: 14; Change: -7
Current GVT: -22 (24th); VUKOTA GVT: -3 (17th)
Like the Habs, but different. The Leafs' campaign may be even harder to swallow because of the early season promise.
22. Anaheim Ducks, 75 points (.446)
March ranking: 21; Change: -1
Current GVT: -20 (t-22nd); VUKOTA GVT: 2 (14th)
Fortysomething Teemu Selanne leads his team with 12.9 GVT, a remarkable accomplishment. Conversely, it's been a disappointing season for Ryan Getzlaf (5.2 GVT). Considered one of the premier power forwards in the league very recently, the Ducks captain hasn't even registered double digits in goals.
23. Edmonton Oilers, 69 points (.410)
March ranking: 23; Change: 0
Current GVT: -20 (t-22nd); VUKOTA GVT: -28 (29th)
Edmonton's made progress, albeit not in the standings. Then again, with all of those number one overall picks, that really should be a given.
24. Florida Panthers, 86 points (.518)
March ranking: 26; Change: -2
Current GVT: -19 (21st); VUKOTA GVT: -19 (25th)
Aside from Los Angeles, Florida easily has the worst offense of any team heading into the postseason. And they're no L.A. Kings in between the pipes—they've gotten great value goaltending from Jose Theodore (11.7 GVT), but he's not exactly Jonathan Quick.
25. Calgary Flames, 83 points (.487)
March ranking: 25; Change: 0
Current GVT: -22 (24th); VUKOTA GVT: 1 (15th)
There's been plenty of shuffling of deck chairs—Robyn Regehr (-1.0 GVT) for Chris Butler (3.1 GVT), Rene Bourque (1.9 GVT) for Michael Cammalleri (4.4 GVT), picking up Blake Comeau (-1.5 GVT)—but the net effect has been pretty negligible.
26. Carolina Hurricanes, 75 points (.440)
March ranking: 24; Change: -2
Current GVT: -26 (26th); VUKOTA GVT: 6 (13th)
There's something to be said for cost certainty, but at some point, you can't just keep re-signing players on a non-playoff team and expect to make progress in the future.
27. Tampa Bay Lightning, 75 points (.452)
March ranking: 27; Change: 0
Current GVT: -43 (27th); VUKOTA GVT: -5 (18th)
Dwayne Roloson (-20.0 GVT) is probably done—and kudos to him, for being a serviceable NHL starter to this point—but if he's going to give it one more go, he might want to try on a goalie-friendly team like Phoenix or Nashville, as opposed to a goalie graveyard like Tampa (or Toronto).
28. New York Islanders, 71 points (.428)
March ranking: 28; Change: 0
Current GVT: -45 (t-28th); VUKOTA GVT: -10 (21st)
Outside of their top-six forwards (we're counting Grabner in here) and their top-three defensemen, Islanders skaters have been a disaster of epic proportions, a combined -10.4 GVT. Yes, ten goals below replacement level for bottom half of their lineup.
29. Minnesota Wild, 72 points (.434)
March ranking: 29; Change: 0
Current GVT: -45 (t-28th); VUKOTA GVT: -30 (30th)
VUKOTA pegged the Wild as the most likely choice for worst team in the league for 2011-12. With their hot start, that's not going to be the case. Not quite, but close. After having the best record in the NHL in late December, they've had the worst record by a mile. Minnesota runs the risk of falling below the Mendoza Line of 2.00 GF per game by season's end, a pretty remarkable "feat". They're at 2.01.
30. Columbus Blue Jackets, 55 points (.332)
March ranking: 30; Change: 0
Current GVT: -65 (30th); VUKOTA GVT: -9 (20th)
Let the Rick Nash watch, version 2.0, begin.
Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.
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