December 2, 2012
The Blue Line
48 Games Is Enough

by Matthew Coller

There are only two options left for the NHL: No season or a shortened season. For now, it is reasonable to still be positive about the possibility of the latter.

But as much as everyone wants hockey back, there are plenty of questions that would come along with a shortened year. Should we see the final result as tainted? Should there be an asterisk by the Cup champs' name? Who does a short season benefit? Who does it hurt?

All are legitimate questions. What about last time?

In 1994, hockey faced a similar situation. A work stoppage lasted into winter, the All-Star Game was canceled and things looked pretty bleak. However, the NHL's 1994-95 season ultimately ended up starting on January 20, 1995. The schedule only featured conference opponents—a twist that might occur again this season.

The New Jersey Devils ended up winning the Stanley Cup after going 22-18-8 in the regular season—the league's 10th best record and the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference. Until the Los Angeles Kings won last year, the Devils were the last seed lower than fourth to win the Cup.

The short season started slowly for the Devils, going 8-8-4 in their first 20 games. In that time span, they faced a tough schedule of 13 teams that would ultimately make the playoffs. Down the stretch, however, they picked up the pace, going 14-10-4 and got into the postseason. During their late season run, 15 of their 28 games were played against opponents who ended up missing the postseason.

Could a portion of the schedule that was overly concentrated with bad teams impact a playoff race more than in an 82-game season?

The percentage of games against teams that missed the playoffs for the Devils in 1994-95 was 45 percent (22 of 48). In the 82 games in 1993-94, the Devils faced 34 opponents who missed the playoffs, which is 41 percent. So there was not a large gap in terms of non-playoff teams faced per game. In terms of the distribution, here's 1993-94 in segments:

Games 1-20: 10 of 20 = 50%
Games 21-40: 8 of 20 = 40%
Games 41-60: 6 of 20 = 30%
Games 61-82: 10 of 22 = 45%

There were portions of the schedule that were similar in difficulty to the shortened season. Games 41-60 were more difficult (70 percent playoff teams) than the first 20 of the short year (65 percent playoff teams). And games 1-20 (50 percent playoff teams) aren't much different from 54 percent in the final 28 games of 1994-95.

It isn't just the Devils, either. Their Stanley Cup Final opponent Detroit Red Wings took on non-playoff opponents in 35 percent of their games (17 of 48). The previous year, in an 82-game season, they faced 37 percent.

Another indicator that the playoff picture was minimally affected by the schedule is that every team with a positive goal differential made the postseason. The teams that were outscoring their opponents were rewarded, just as they are in an 82-game season. It would be much easier to find fault with the schedule if there had been teams with positive differentials missing in late March.

While the league's two top dogs weren't affected much by the shortened schedule in 1994-95, there were two teams whose fans ended the season wishing it had gone 82 games. The Los Angeles Kings and Florida Panthers both missed the playoffs by just one point. The Panthers played six straight games against eventual playoff teams to end the season and the Kings had nine ties, which was the second most in the NHL. Basically, not everyone ended up happy with the short season. What if it was last year?

There's no telling how another 34 games would have turned out for the Devils, Panthers, or Kings in 1995, but we can get a pretty good idea of how 2011-12 would have been affected by a shortened season.

The first way is to simply look at the conference records. If we assume the league goes back to in-conference only games, we can find out what percentage that made the playoffs would have done so if they were only playing the conference schedule. Here are the results:

Eastern Conference

1 NY Rangers 86 points
2 Boston 79
3 Washington 76
4 Philadelphia 81
5 New Jersey 80
6 Pittsburgh 79
7 Florida 78
8 Ottawa 76

Western Conference

1 Vancouver 88 points
2 Nashville 85
3 Detroit 81
4 Phoenix 80
5 St. Louis 79
6 Los Angeles 77
7 Chicago 72
8 Calgary 72

As you can see, the only team of the 16 that would have made the playoffs if last year was an in-conference schedule that did not make it with the full 82 was the Calgary Flames and the only club that would have missed the postseason that actually made it was the San Jose Sharks. The difference was only one point for the eighth seed.

Another way to split up last season's results are by simply looking at the first 48 games. Would the playoff picture have looked different if the postseason had started at the end of January 2012?

The short answer: Not really.

Eastern Conference

1 NY Rangers 67
2 Boston 66
3 Washington 55
4 Philadelphia 63
5 Pittsburgh 58
6 Ottawa 58
7 New Jersey 55
8 Florida 55

Western Conference

1 Detroit 66
2 Vancouver 62
3 San Jose 60
4 Chicago 64
5 St. Louis 64
6 Nashville 60
7 Los Angeles 60
8 Minnesota 53

Notice the only team in that didn't make it was the Minnesota Wild, who had an incredible collapse in the second half of last season. The only team that did make it but wouldn't have was the Phoenix Coyotes.

How about another 48-game sample? The final 48 of last year's regular season would look like this:

Eastern Conference

1 Pittsburgh 66
2 Ottawa 56
3 Washington 56
4 NY Rangers 63
5 New Jersey 63
6 Philadelphia 57
7 Carolina 56
8 NY Islanders 55

Western Conference

1 Vancouver 67
2 St. Louis 65
3 Los Angeles 59
4 Nashville 64
5 Detroit 59
6 Phoenix 58
7 Anaheim 56
8 Colorado 56

The final 48 games offer quite a different playoff picture than the one that actually happened in 2011-12. In the East, the Hurricanes and Islanders weren't even close to the playoffs, but would have made it based on the final 48 games. The West featured Anaheim and Colorado, who missed the postseason. There would have been plenty of shuffling in the seeding as well.

However, if you take all three samples into account, then 85 percent (41 of 48) of teams who made the playoffs last season would have done so in the 48-game sample. The Stanley Cup finalists would have made the playoffs in all three.

So in the end, if there is a shortened 48-game season in 2012-13, the good teams are probably going to be good and make the playoffs and the bad teams will be bad and won't make it to the postseason. There will be some who claim benefit and some who say they were short-changed, but it appears whether it was 1994's actual results or 2011-12's split in every which way, the overall affect of the season being shortened will be minimal.

Now, about that CBA…

Matthew Coller is an author of Hockey Prospectus. You can contact Matthew by clicking here or click here to see Matthew's other articles.