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If you delve into our history, Tom Awad provided his Bayesian Rankings of teams way back in second half of 2009. While Tom's been regularly providing us with GVT-based Player Power Rankings, ye loyal readers haven't gotten a chance to see the team components of GVT often, nor have we given you any in-season team rankings. It's time to change that.
Below you'll see the components of GVT broken out for each team, through last weekend—so these numbers jive with yesterday's Player Power Rankings, run through December 4:
Teams by Goals Versus Threshold
Rank Team GP Pts Win% OGVT DGVT GGVT SGVT GVT
1 Boston Bruins 24 33 .622 16.9 4.4 10.3 2.0 34
2 Pittsburgh Penguins 27 36 .603 8.7 6.1 1.5 1.0 19
3 Detroit Red Wings 25 33 .597 6.2 7.9 5.2 1.0 19
4 New York Rangers 23 33 .649 4.6 2.2 10.0 0.0 18
5 Vancouver Canucks 26 31 .540 12.4 2.2 -0.1 -1.0 16
6 Philadelphia Flyers 25 33 .597 20.2 -0.5 -5.1 -1.0 15
7 San Jose Sharks 23 29 .571 1.6 2.2 3.0 3.0 11
8 Minnesota Wild 27 37 .620 -8.3 1.3 11.3 3.0 9
9 Florida Panthers 26 32 .557 1.4 1.0 6.9 -2.0 8
10 Chicago Blackhawks 27 35 .587 13.7 0.0 -11.3 1.0 6
11 St. Louis Blues 26 31 .540 -7.6 10.7 5.2 -3.0 5
12 Phoenix Coyotes 25 29 .525 -1.8 -1.3 7.7 -1.0 5
13 Edmonton Oilers 27 29 .486 1.7 1.4 5.9 -2.0 5
14 Buffalo Sabres 26 29 .505 -0.6 -1.4 4.3 1.0 3
15 Los Angeles Kings 26 30 .522 -11.6 2.1 10.0 -1.0 2
16 Toronto Maple Leafs 26 30 .522 9.4 -5.1 -7.1 2.0 -2
17 Montreal Canadiens 27 27 .453 -7.3 5.0 3.3 -2.0 -2
18 Nashville Predators 26 28 .487 -2.6 -2.9 3.7 -1.0 -3
19 Dallas Stars 26 31 .540 -3.6 -5.3 5.1 1.0 -3
20 Colorado Avalanche 27 27 .453 -2.3 2.4 -2.4 4.0 -3
21 Washington Capitals 25 27 .489 6.2 -2.4 -8.3 0.0 -4
22 Winnipeg Jets 26 26 .453 3.4 -3.9 -4.5 0.0 -7
23 New Jersey Devils 25 25 .453 -10.8 3.5 -7.2 4.0 -10
24 Ottawa Senators 26 27 .470 6.4 -8.0 -11.9 1.0 -10
25 Calgary Flames 26 24 .418 -10.6 0.3 0.5 -1.0 -12
26 Tampa Bay Lightning 25 24 .434 -1.8 -4.0 -6.7 -1.0 -13
27 Anaheim Ducks 26 19 .331 -11.6 -7.0 -4.2 -2.0 -26
28 Columbus Blue Jackets 26 17 .296 -9.6 -0.8 -11.6 -2.0 -26
29 New York Islanders 24 21 .396 -13.1 -3.9 -3.8 -2.0 -26
30 Carolina Hurricanes 28 20 .323 -10.0 -6.2 -9.7 -2.0 -28
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
GGVT: Goaltending GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
Stats as of December 4
What's not shown here—why the offensive, defensive, goaltending, and shootout components of GVT don't quite add up to the total—is a factor dealing with empty net goals against.
How's VUKOTA doing?
It's two months into the season, and as we'd expect, our VUKOTA projections are looking pretty good in general, and as we'd expect, there are a few teams that are throwing off expectations. Our 30th-projected Minnesota Wild are obviously a huge surprise (though we love the farm system) and our top-ranked Washington Capitals, faltering after a torrid start, are two examples. Florida, Phoenix, and Edmonton are other surprises among overachievers, while Carolina's an unexpected underachiever.
Team Power Rankings
We're not even a third of the way into the season. Some of what you've seen is "real" and sustainable. A lot of it isn't. In particular, very fortunate or unfortunate netminding performances are bound to regress to the mean, and shootout luck also tends to even out over the long haul. I've weighed those factors, along with our VUKOTA projections to create the following power rankings:
1. Boston Bruins, 33 points (.622)
Current GVT: 34 (1st); VUKOTA GVT: 17 (6th)
Tim Thomas is turning in another Vezina-quality performance in net and the Bruins continue to destroy their opposition at five-on-five, putting up 1.78 GF for every GA. Perhaps that championship wasn't so fluky after all.
2. New York Rangers, 33 points (.649)
Current GVT: 18 (4th); VUKOTA GVT: 20 (4th)
Sure, the Blue Shirts are giving up nearly four shots per game more than they're taking, but the team's hung in well considering that they've played without their number one defenseman, Marc Staal (7.3 projected GVT), up to this point. Bumping Ryan McDonagh (4.9 GVT) down to the second pairing and Jeff Woywitka to the press box will only strengthen their lower pairings.
3. Washington Capitals, 27 points (.489)
Current GVT: -4 (21st); VUKOTA GVT: 42 (1st)
So maybe it wasn't the coach? Projected as the President's Trophy winner by a healthy five-point margin, the Capitals are definitely underachieving. Again. They've still got the horses to be a contender.
4. Vancouver Canucks, 31 points (.540)
Current GVT: 16 (5th); VUKOTA GVT: 19 (5th)
All the press is about Luongo vs. Schneider, but the Canucks' power play is again pacing the NHL (26.1%).
5. Pittsburgh Penguins, 36 points (.603)
Current GVT: 19 (t-2nd); VUKOTA GVT: 16 (8th)
With Crosby and Malkin in the lineup, anything's possible. Pascal Dupuis surprisingly leads Penguins skaters with 7.1 GVT to date, though he's got seven games on Gino and 20 games on Sid.
6. Detroit Red Wings, 33 points (.597)
Current GVT: 19 (t-2nd); VUKOTA GVT: 11 (9th)
After a season of underachieving, Jimmy Howard's overachieving (.931, 11.6 GVT). Valtteri Filppula has been an unexpected contributor with 5.8 GVT, but he's out now with a leg injury.
7. Chicago Blackhawks, 35 points (.587)
Current GVT: 6 (10th); VUKOTA GVT: 22 (3rd)
VUKOTA's top ranked team from the West is getting strong seasons out of Toews, Kane, Hossa, and Sharp, spackling over the below average netminding of Corey Crawford (.898) and Ray Emery (.883).
8. San Jose Sharks, 29 points (.571)
Current GVT: 11 (7th); VUKOTA GVT: 17 (6th)
As usual, San Jose is outshooting their opponents by a healthy clip (+4.1 shots per game).
9. Philadelphia Flyers, 33 points (.597)
Current GVT: 15 (6th); VUKOTA GVT: 8 (11th)
The Flyers are leading the league with 20.2 Offensive GVT, though Boston edges them in Offensive+Defensive GVT. All without Mike Richards and Jeff Carter.
10. Buffalo Sabres, 29 points (.505)
Current GVT: 3 (14th); VUKOTA GVT: 26 (2nd)
The Sabres would seem to have a deep and balanced lineup, but it hasn't translated to above average skater contributions to date. Ville Leino is struggling along at replacement level, and only five Buffalo skaters (Vanek, Pominville, Adam, Leopold, Roy) have exceeded 2.0 GVT.
11. St. Louis Blues, 31 points (.540)
Current GVT: 5 (t-11th); VUKOTA GVT: 8 (11th)
Boston tops the league in five-on-five scoring ratio, but would you have guessed that St. Louis (1.53) ranks second? That, and outshooting their opposition by +4 SD bodes well for the Blues despite an unsustainable performance in net—to say the least!—by Brian Elliott (.944, 10.7 GVT), last season's worst performing player.
12. Los Angeles Kings, 30 points (.522)
Current GVT: 2 (15th); VUKOTA GVT: 9 (10th)
Jonathan Quick (.936, 15.1 GVT) is the new name at the top of our Player Power Rankings, helping alleviate a severe power outage on the offensive end of the ice. Conspicuously, late-signing Drew Doughty has posted only 1.1 GVT.
13. Toronto Maple Leafs, 30 points (.522)
Current GVT: -2 (t-16th); VUKOTA GVT: -3 (17th)
High-flying linemates Phil Kessel (7.7 GVT) and Joffrey Lupul (8.1 GVT) are only behind Claude Giroux in the Player Power Rankings (skaters).
14. Nashville Predators, 28 points (.487)
Current GVT: -3 (t-18th); VUKOTA GVT: -2 (16th)
There's some cause to concern in the Music City, where the Preds are being outshot by 5.5 shots per game. Thank goodness for Pekka Rinne (.921, 6.1 GVT), Shea Weber (6.3 GVT), and Ryan Suter (5.7 GVT)…at least for now.
15. Florida Panthers, 32 points (.557)
Current GVT: 8 (9th); VUKOTA GVT: -19 (25th)
Give GM Dale Tallon the mad scientist award for making the acquisition of a bunch of lower tier free agents work this well. They're overachieving, but a solid team nonetheless.
16. Montreal Canadiens, 27 points (.453)
Current GVT: -2 (t-16th); VUKOTA GVT: -8 (19th)
As middle of the road as you can get, and less than that without Carey Price (.918, 4.9 GVT).
17. Calgary Flames, 24 points (.418)
Current GVT: -12 (25th); VUKOTA GVT: 1 (15th)
Blake Comeau has produced three points and a positive GVT for the Flames—much better than his performance for the Islanders. There, we said something nice.
18. Dallas Stars, 31 points (.540)
Current GVT: -3 (t-18th); VUKOTA GVT: -12 (23th)
Stars' opponents have managed to direct 4.2 more shots on the Dallas goal. A superior performance by Kari Lehtonen (.925, 10.2 GVT), prior to his injury, helped secure many of those points.
19. Phoenix Coyotes, 29 points (.525)
Current GVT: 5 (t-11th); VUKOTA GVT: -22 (27th)
The three teams directly ahead of the Coyotes in goaltending GVT (putting aside Minnesota) have netminders named Thomas, Lundqvist, and Quick. Phoenix has Mike Smith (.931, 12.4 GVT). Discuss.
20. Tampa Bay Lightning, 24 points (.434)
Current GVT: -13 (26th); VUKOTA GVT: -5 (18th)
The magic fairy dust is wearing off.
21. Edmonton Oilers, 29 points (.486)
Current GVT: 5 (t-11th); VUKOTA GVT: -28 (29th)
The goaltending performance has already been falling down to earth over the past month (-4.4 GVT since November 6), but all of those high picks are definitely starting to pay off. The playoff talk should really be put off for another season, though.
22. Colorado Avalanche, 27 points (.453)
Current GVT: -3 (t-18th); VUKOTA GVT: -19 (25th)
Ryan O'Reilly is leading the team with 5.6 GVT, while J-S Giguere (.923, 2.9 GVT) is outpacing expensive acquisition Semyon Varlamov (.905, 0.5 GVT) in net.
23. Minnesota Wild, 37 points (.620)
Current GVT: 9 (8th); VUKOTA GVT: -30 (30th)
The Wild, all the way down at #23! Are you nuts? Yes, or no. While Mike Yeo is in early Jack Adams discussions, Minnesota's being outshot by about five shots per game, the same as last season. Plus ca change, you know.
24. New Jersey Devils, 25 points (.453)
Current GVT: -10 (t-23rd); VUKOTA GVT: -11 (22nd)
After scoring a pathetic 2.08 goals per game in 2010-11—easily the worst since the lockout—New Jersey is only a couple ticks up from last place, at 2.31 GF per game.
25. Winnipeg Jets, 26 points (.453)
Current GVT: -7 (22nd); VUKOTA GVT: -18 (24th)
It's a good thing that the honeymoon's expected to last in Winnipeg, because the team's not that great and the pipeline is pretty dry.
26. Carolina Hurricanes, 20 points (.323)
Current GVT: -28 (30th); VUKOTA GVT: 6 (13th)
VUKOTA may have overestimated the Canes, but they're not the worst team in the league.
27. Anaheim Ducks, 19 points (.331)
Current GVT: -26 (t-27th); VUKOTA GVT: 2 (14th)
VUKOTA definitely overestimated the Ducks. Rob Vollman was on top of it, though.
28. Ottawa Senators, 27 points (.470)
Current GVT: -10 (t-23rd); VUKOTA GVT: -27 (28th)
A league-worst defensive GVT and a league-worst goaltending GVT can't be a very good mix.
29. Columbus Blue Jackets, 17 points (.296)
Current GVT: -26 (t-27th); VUKOTA GVT: -9 (20th)
Curtis Sanford (.926, 3.1 GVT) has stepped in to provide surprisingly solid netminding, a welcome change from Steve Mason (.875, -13.0 GVT). The bad news is that Sanford leads the whole team in GVT.
30. New York Islanders, 21 points (.396)
Current GVT: -26 (t-27th); VUKOTA GVT: -10 (21st)
So much for that next step. And the goaltending hasn't really killed them, either. It's the league-worst offense.
That's what I've got for you this time! We'll check in again at the beginning of next month to see how things stand.
Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.
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Pucks From The Past (12/06)
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