As 30 NHL teams went to training camp last weekend, thousands of fantasy hockey players across North America went to their computers to form their teams for this shortened 2013 season. The length of the campaign will have an impact on fantasy owners as well, with the fantasy regular season reduced to 10-12 weeks of play, depending on your league's playoff setup. With less time to analyze and tinker your roster as the season progresses, it is more crucial than ever to ensure that your team is ready to go when the puck drops on Saturdaypretty much the same as what's being said about the real NHL teams. Getting off to a hot start could make a world of difference.
Schedule Analysis
We know that possession metrics are a big key to winning real-life hockey games, but they can help your fake team as well. When in doubt, you want players from teams that drive possession, or players facing opponents who struggle at doing so; those players are, generally speaking, more likely to score goals, record assists/shots, draw penalties (leading to power play points), and boost their plus/minus. Here are the schedules to target this week, ranked in order from most favorable to least favorable, For reference, Fenwick information from last season is included�green represents a top 10 matchup, and red bottom 10. Your upper third of favorability is below.
10 most favorable matchups, week 1
Sat 1/19
Sun 1/20
Mon 1/21
Tue 1/22
Wed 1/23
Thu 1/24
Fri 1/25
Sat 1/26
Sun 1/27
VAN
ANA
EDM
CGY
@ANA
@SJS
CHI
@LAK
@PHX
STL
@DAL
@CBJ
DET
SJS
@CGY
@EDM
PHX
COL
VAN
CAR
@FLA
TBL
BUF
@BUF
BUF
PHI
@TOR
@CAR
CAR
@WSH
PIT
@PHI
@NYR
TOR
@WPG
@OTT
OTT
@WPG
FLA
@FLA
@TBL
PIT
TBL
WSH
@NYI
@CAR
OTT
PHI
FLA
CAR
@OTT
@MTL
OTT
PHI
WSH
@TBL
WPG
MTL
@NJD
BUF
Vancouver opens the year on the easiest path, starting the season with three straight home games and four straight favorable matchups. The Blackhawks' matchups aren't particularly appealing, but they receive a major boost for their six-game week. None of San Jose and Carolina's matchups should scare you away. Buffalo has a five-game week and favorable opponents on paper, but they do play Carolina twice, a team expected to improve its possession metrics with the additions of Jordan Staal and Alexander Semin. You're playing your Penguins no matter what, and this is a particularly strong week to do so. A rough back-to-back is rewarded by a good trio of matchups late in the week. Ottawa, Tampa Bay, Florida, and Washington skaters all receive boosts this week due to favorable schedules. Give the fringe players on these squads slight upticks.
10 neutral matchups, week 1
Sat 1/19
Sun 1/20
Mon 1/21
Tue 1/22
Wed 1/23
Thu 1/24
Fri 1/25
Sat 1/26
Sun 1/27
TOR
@MTL
BUF
@PIT
NYI
@NYR
BOS
NYR
WPG
@NYR
NYI
CGY
SJS
ANA
@VAN
EDM
COL
@MIN
LAK
CBJ
@SJS
NSH
CBJ
STL
@MIN
@STL
@ANA
DET
@STL
@CBJ
DAL
MIN
@CHI
ANA
@VAN
@CGY
VAN
NSH
LAK
CHI
@COL
@EDM
@PHX
MTL
TOR
FLA
@WSH
NJD
NJD
@NYI
PHI
WSH
@MTL
Toronto's schedule could have ranked number nine or 10, but one home game out of five, as well as daunting trips to Pittsburgh and Madison Square Garden, are worrisome. Seven of the 10 teams in this group have only four games this week, but against a non-daunting group of opponents overall. It's an up-and-down week for Nashville, but two games against possession monster St. Louis, plus question marks about their offensive identity have me playing the "wait and see" card. Detroit bookends a soft midweek with rough games at St. Louis and at Chicago.
10 least favorable matchups, week 1
Sat 1/19
Sun 1/20
Mon 1/21
Tue 1/22
Wed 1/23
Thu 1/24
Fri 1/25
Sat 1/26
Sun 1/27
MIN
COL
DAL
NSH
@DET
@STL
NYI
NJD
TBL
@TOR
@BOS
@WPG
CBJ
@NSH
DET
@PHX
@COL
CHI
STL
DET
@NSH
@CHI
NSH
@DAL
MIN
PHI
PIT
@BUF
@NJD
NYR
@FLA
@TBL
WPG
OTT
@BOS
@WSH
PIT
NYI
PHX
@DAL
CHI
CBJ
@SJS
LAK
DAL
PHX
@MIN
@DET
CHI
STL
EDM
@VAN
SJS
LAK
@CGY
NYR
@BOS
PIT
BOS
@PHI
TOR
Minnesota, Columbus, and St. Louis have tough weeks to begin with, "eased" by green-coded games against Nashville, but we know that elite goaltending can overcome poor possession metrics. Still, in a condensed season, Pekka Rinne may not see all of these starts. Edmonton is another team on a four-week schedule, but three of the matchups are brutalhold off on making rash decisions regarding Yakupov/Schultz evaluations for now. The Rangers open by running the gauntlet of the toughest teams in the Eastern Conference before finishing with a home date against Toronto.
If MIN is playing STL on the 27th, shouldn't they be included in STL's schedule?